Phillies vs. Pirates Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Phillies vs. Pirates MLB game on May 15, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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MLB
Phillies
Aaron Nola 2-3, 5.14 ERA
11
9
PNC Park
Pirates
Braxton Ashcraft 2-2, 2.77 ERA
PNC Park
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 RHE
Phillies
0 0 1 2 0 2 0 3 3 11 14 2
Pirates
0 6 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 9 11 1
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Phillies
    100%
  • Pirates
    0%
Win Probability
Baseball infield diamond diagram
Last At Bat
Outs
Endy Rodríguez strikes out swinging.
Quick Box Score
Phillies Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 T. Turner SS6210002.1670.334
2 K. Schwarber DH5235211.6002.467
3 B. Harper 1B5142000.8001.600
4 A. Bohm 3B5110000.2000.400
5 B. Marsh LF5111000.2000.600
6 B. Stott 2B4111000.2500.450
7 R. Marchán C10120001.0002.000
8 J. Crawford CF5020000.4000.800
9 A. García RF1100011.0000.500
Pirates Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 O. Cruz CF4122012.5001.100
2 B. Lowe 2B5223202.4002.000
3 B. Reynolds RF5120000.4000.800
4 R. O'Hearn 1B4100011.0000.200
5 M. Ozuna DH4112112.2501.400
6 N. Gonzales PH1000000.0000.000
7 K. Griffin SS5111001.2000.400
8 E. Rodríguez C4100012.0000.200
9 J. Triolo 3B3010000.3330.666

Phillies vs. Pirates: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Phillies vs. Pirates
  • Date: Friday, May 15, 2026
  • Time: 6:40 PM ET
  • Venue: PNC Park

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Pirates favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 8.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Phillies 45¢, Pirates 56¢

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Phillies: 47%
  • Pirates: 53%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Phillies a win probability of 47%, while the Pirates have a win probability of 53%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Pirates are more likely to beat the Phillies in the MLB game at PNC Park on Friday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Phillies vs. Pirates predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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For further insights, explore our expert MLB predictions and the best MLB bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes MLB props, MLB futures, MLB odds, and the latest MLB news.