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Twins vs. Mets prediction: Mets favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [4/23/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Minnesota Twins vs New York Mets predictions for MLB Thursday.
The New York Mets will face the Minnesota Twins, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at Citi Field on Thursday, starting at 7:10 PM ET.
Christian Scott (0-0, 0.00 ERA) will start on the mound for the Mets, pitting him against Joe Ryan (2-2, 3.29 ERA) for the Twins.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Mets a slight edge with a 51% win probability over the Twins.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's Twins vs. Mets matchup, including best bets and picks.
Twins vs. Mets prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's MLB game between the Twins and Mets, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Mets a 51% chance of beating the Twins.
According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 64% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 53% chance of going over.
Twins vs. Mets odds [4/23/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Twins | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (+158) | +1.5 (-180) |
| Moneyline | -110 | -102 |
| Total | o7.5 (-108) | u7.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Twins vs. Mets picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Mets +1.5 | -180 |
| Moneyline | Mets | -102 |
| Total | Over 7.5 | -108 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Twins vs. Mets game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's MLB action between the Mets and Twins at Citi Field is scheduled to begin at 7:10 PM ET.
- Who: Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets
- Date: Thursday, April 23, 2026
- Time: 7:10 PM ET/4:10PM PT
- Venue: Citi Field
Conclusion
We predict the Mets, with a 51% win probability, will likely beat the Twins in Thursday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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