Lynx vs. Mercury prediction: Why Phoenix is favored to win Tuesday's WNBA matchup [5/12/2026]

The Phoenix Mercury will square off with the Minnesota Lynx in WNBA action at Mortgage Matchup Center on Tuesday, starting at 10:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Mercury as the most likely winner of the Lynx vs. Mercury game.

The Mercury, with the likes of Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner, are set to take on the Lynx, featuring Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams and Olivia Miles.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Tuesday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Lynx vs. Mercury prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Tuesday's WNBA matchup between the Lynx and Mercury, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Mercury a 73% chance of defeating the Lynx.

According to our model, the Mercury (-5.5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the 168.5-point over/under has a 53% chance of staying under.

Lynx vs. Mercury odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Lynx	Mercury
Spread	+5.5 (-118)	-5.5 (-104)
Moneyline	+172	-200
Total	o168.5 (-108)	u168.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Lynx vs. Mercury picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Mercury -5.5	-104
Moneyline	Mercury	-200
Total	Under 168.5	-110

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mercury to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Lynx vs. Mercury player props

WNBA prop bets are an enjoyable way to wager on Tuesday's Minnesota vs. Phoenix game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.

Kayla McBride is expected to lead the Lynx with 16 points, 3 rebounds and 4 assists, while Kahleah Copper is projected to have 17 points, 3 rebounds and 2 assists for the Mercury.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's WNBA first basket picks.

Lynx prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Lynx are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kayla McBride	16	3	4	3	30
C. Williams	15	6	7	1	39
Olivia Miles	15	5	5	1	34
Natasha Howard	10	7	2	0	25
Nia Coffey	10	7	3	2	28

Mercury prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kahleah Copper	17	3	2	2	28
Alyssa Thomas	15	10	10	0	48
DeWanna Bonner	11	6	1	1	26
Jovana Nogic	9	3	3	1	20
Natasha Mack	7	9	1	0	25

Lynx vs. Mercury game-day updates and essential details

Tuesday's game between the Mercury and Lynx at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to begin at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury
• Date: Tuesday, May 12, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center

Conclusion

We predict the Mercury, with a 73% win probability, will likely beat the Lynx in Tuesday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.