Jun 26, 2026
Mystics vs. Sun prediction: Why Washington is favored to win Friday's WNBA matchup [6/26/2026]
Read Article WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Tuesday, May 12, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 5/12.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Tuesday, May 12, 2026—are live with the Knicks' Breanna Stewart projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections are based on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Stewart, Breanna Stewart and Paige Bueckers lead Tuesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also feature tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (May 12, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| Breanna Stewart (Liberty) | 16.9% |
| Paige Bueckers (Wings) | 14.9% |
| Haley Jones (Fire) | 14.6% |
| Sarah Ashlee Barker (Fire) | 12.8% |
| Courtney Williams (Lynx) | 12.7% |
| Carla Leite (Fire) | 12.6% |
| Jovana Nogic (Mercury) | 12.3% |
| Rhyne Howard (Dream) | 12.2% |
| Kahleah Copper (Mercury) | 11.9% |
| Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) | 11.8% |
| Allisha Gray (Dream) | 11.0% |
| Pauline Astier (Liberty) | 10.8% |
| Marine Johannes (Liberty) | 10.8% |
| Angel Reese (Dream) | 10.5% |
| Kayla McBride (Lynx) | 10.2% |
| Natasha Howard (Lynx) | 10.0% |
| Odyssey Sims (Wings) | 9.9% |
| Emily Engstler (Fire) | 9.8% |
| Olivia Miles (Lynx) | 9.6% |
| Arike Ogunbowale (Wings) | 9.6% |
| Jessica Shepard (Wings) | 8.8% |
| Luisa Geiselsoder (Fire) | 8.8% |
| Betnijah Laney (Liberty) | 8.3% |
| Jordin Canada (Dream) | 8.3% |
| Naz Hillmon (Dream) | 8.1% |
| Jonquel Jones (Liberty) | 8.0% |
| Nia Coffey (Lynx) | 7.5% |
| Natasha Mack (Mercury) | 7.4% |
| Alanna Smith (Wings) | 6.7% |
| DeWanna Bonner (Mercury) | 6.6% |
| Bridget Carleton (Fire) | 6.0% |
| Leonie Fiebich (Liberty) | 6.0% |
WNBA first basket picks today (May 12, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jovana Nogic | Mercury | 3.9% | +1100 | 12.3% |
| Emily Engstler | Fire | 3.5% | +1500 | 9.8% |
| Courtney Williams | Lynx | 1.6% | +800 | 12.7% |
| Olivia Miles | Lynx | 1.3% | +1100 | 9.6% |
| Arike Ogunbowale | Wings | 1.3% | +1100 | 9.6% |
| Marine Johannes | Liberty | 1.2% | +950 | 10.8% |
| Rhyne Howard | Dream | 0.4% | +750 | 12.2% |
| Carla Leite | Fire | 0.1% | +700 | 12.6% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 5/12.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Tuesday, May 12, 2026, Breanna Stewart, Breanna Stewart and Paige Bueckers lead our first basket projections, while Jovana Nogic shapes as the strongest value play at +1100. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
Advertiser disclosure
