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Astros vs. Reds prediction: Why Cincinnati is favored to win Saturday's MLB matchup [5/9/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds predictions for MLB Saturday.
The Cincinnati Reds will face the Houston Astros in MLB action at Great American Ball Park on Saturday, beginning at 4:10 PM ET.
Chase Burns (3-1, 2.20 ERA) will get the ball for the Reds, pitting him against Spencer Arrighetti (4-0, 1.96 ERA) for the Astros.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model predicts the Reds as the most likely winner of the Astros vs. Reds game.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Astros vs. Reds prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's MLB matchup between the Astros and Reds, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Reds a 59% chance of beating the Astros.
According to our model, the Astros (+1.5) have a 58% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 55% chance of going over.
Astros vs. Reds odds [5/9/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Astros | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-146) | -1.5 (+125) |
| Moneyline | +140 | -162 |
| Total | o8.5 (-118) | u8.5 (+100) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Astros vs. Reds picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Astros +1.5 | -146 |
| Moneyline | Astros | +140 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | -118 |
According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Astros vs. Reds game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's MLB game between the Reds and Astros at Great American Ball Park is scheduled to begin at 4:10 PM ET.
- Who: Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds
- Date: Saturday, May 9, 2026
- Time: 4:10 PM ET/1:10PM PT
- Venue: Great American Ball Park
Conclusion
We predict the Reds, with a 59% win probability, will likely beat the Astros in Saturday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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