FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Home Run Picks: Top five HR hitters in the Dimers App today, May 5

Home run betting gets a boost today, May 5, as FanDuel's "Dinger Tuesday" promo is live on Tuesdays during the 2026 MLB season, with this year's version offering a choice between a Bet Reset Token or a 50% Profit Boost Token, both eligible on any "To Hit a Home Run" wager for today's MLB games.

If you're new to the promotion or just need a refresher on the updated rules, we've got everything you need below, including today's top home run probabilities ranked by the Dimers model as seen with Dimers Pro.

Speaking of Dimers Pro, you can get every player's home run prediction every single day, making it the ultimate tool for home run betting in 2026. Sign up today and get a three-day free trial!

What Is Dinger Tuesday?

Dinger Tuesday is FanDuel Sportsbook's long-running weekly MLB promotion, dropping every Tuesday during the baseball season. This year, FanDuel has changed the format with a Choose Your Own Reward option, giving bettors the two bonuses to pick from.

Here's how it works:

1. Find the Choose Your Own Reward carousel card on the FanDuel homepage and click "Choose Reward."
2. Select one of two options: a Bet Reset Token or a 50% Profit Boost Token.
3. Click "Claim Reward" — it'll be loaded directly into your FanDuel account.
4. Apply it to any eligible "To Hit a Home Run" straight bet or parlay for today's MLB games.

Today's top home run probabilities – May 5, 2026

Our model has crunched the numbers across today's full MLB slate.

Below is a ranking of the best home run probabilities on the board and a breakdown of each matchup.

1. Aaron Judge (Yankees)

Game: Yankees vs. Rangers

Dimers Probability: 22.5%

FanDuel Odds: +210

Leading the board on Dinger Tuesday is Aaron Judge, who's hit a home run in back-to-back games for a tie with Munetaka Murakami atop the MLB leaderboard at 14 apiece.

Judge is historically the most dominant in May, when he's hit more home runs than any other month of his career, adding another to that total this weekend.

He draws a 22.5% probability to go yard against the Rangers who will send Jacob deGrom to the mound tonight, who's been great but not untouchable, allowing 4 HR this season so far. He almost exclusively throws a 4-seamer and slider to righthanded hitters and so far this year, Judge has mashed the 4-seamer unsurprisingly, but struggled to hit the slider a bit.

Fair odds for Judge would be +345, so using FanDuel's 50% boost gets him a bit closer at +325, but not quite a value or fair odds play.

2. Jo Adell (Angels)

Game: Angels vs. White Sox

Dimers Probability: 20.5%

FanDuel Odds: +420

Next up is Jo Adell of the Angels, who's off to a solid start, but hasn't quite been generating the power that led to his 37-HR outburst last year, putting up 4 HR, all of lefty pitchers.

He gets a 20.5% probability to go yard tonight against the White Sox with RHP Erick Fedde taking the mound. Fedde's given up a at least 1 HR in 4 of his  last 5 starts, including a pair in his last outing, against this Angels team. Behind Fedde is a White Sox bullpen that's allowed 18 HR, tied for 5th-most in MLB.

The good news for Adell is that Fedde doesn't have much swing-and-miss stuff, has been more vulnerable against right-handed hitting, and gets some wind blowing out in Angel Stadium tonight. However, he throws some pitches, namely cutter and sinker, that Adell hasn't hit well this year.

At 20.5%, fair odds for Adell would be around +390, so he's a slight edge play here.

3. Kyle Schwarber (Phillies)

Game: Phillies vs. Athletics

Dimers Probability: 19.6%

FanDuel Odds: +220

Next up is Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber at 19.6% against the A's.

Schwarber is coming off a bad series against the Marlins in which he went just 2-16 with 0 HR and 9 strikeouts. He'll get a bounce-back chance against A's starter Luis Severino who's been solid, with a couple  of bad games in which he gave 2 HR each.

Lefties have historically hit well for power against Severino, who mostly throws a mix of fastball variants against lefties. One of those, the sinker, is one of Schwarber's best pitches, and 3 of Severino's 4 HR have come against his sinker this year.

Schwarber gets the hitter-friendly confines of his home park tonight, with big wind blowing out, giving an already big hitter a bigger boost. Far odds for Schwarber would be around +400, so the FanDuel boost takes him closer to that range, but not all the way there.

Dimers' top home run probabilities from our MLB Hitter Hub.

4. Juan Soto (Mets)

Game: Rockies vs. Mets

Dimers Probability: 19.6%

FanDuel Odds: +360

Alongside Schwarber at 19.6% is Juan Soto, who's battled some early injuries but otherwise hit very well early on. He picked up a pair of homers shortly after returning from injury, but is homer-less in five straight after doing so.

He's been walked or struck out 10 times in his last 18 at-bats and hasn't capitalized on some great matchups against the Rockies and Angels.

He'll face one of this year's poorer starters, Michael Lorenzen, who started to sort out his home run issues before issues a pair against the Reds in his most recent start.

Lorenzen's given up 5 of his 6 HR to lefthanded hitters and boasts no impressive metrics, aside from his ability to limit walks, which we don't want here either.

Weather is the issue tonight - the forecast projects cold, windy and rain or possibly snow at gametime, which matters as much or more than the matchup, so be sure to monitor the weather before taking a flier on Soto tonight.

5. Michael Busch (Cubs)

Game: Cubs vs. Reds

Dimers Probability: 19.5%

FanDuel Odds: +680

Rounding out the Top 5 is our best edge play of the day, Michael Busch of the Cubs at 19.5%

Busch is slowly turning around a very quiet start, but with two dingers on the year, is well behind last season's power surge of 34 home runs. He's squaring up the ball well, but is not generating the hardhit balls needed to leave the yard.

Fortunately, he'll get Reds starter Andrew Abbott, who's given up 5 HR this year, including a pair to lefties. Abbott leans heavily on the 4-seam fastball, which has never given Busch trouble in the past, but is one he hasn't found his swing against this year.

Fair odds for Busch would be around just +415, so he's a big value play at +680 on FanDuel, which implies just a 12.8% chance.

Three ways to bet on Dinger Tuesday

1. High Probability approach

Back the players at the top of the probability list. You'll often be betting on the game's premier power hitters at shorter odds, but you're maximizing your chance of cashing. Pair this approach with the Profit Boost Token to squeeze some extra payout out of a high-confidence pick.

2. Maximum Value approach

Look for players where our model's probability significantly outpaces the implied probability in their FanDuel odds. Sometimes those will be top probability players, other times you'll have to check out our best MLB props if they're further down the board. These edges are where the real value always lies. Similarly, you can use the Profit Boost Token to turn a player who isn't a value play into a value play.

3. The Longshot Parlay

Stack two or more of today's value plays into a parlay for a significantly higher payout. Use the Bet Reset token to return your original wager in the form of bonus bets in case the wager loses. Just keep your unit size smaller than you'd use on a straight wager as parlays carry substantially higher variance.

Tips to picking your home run bets

A few key factors worth checking before locking in your picks:

• Matchup: How does the batter fare against this starter's primary pitch mix?
• Ballpark: Is there a short porch, elevation advantage, or favorable wind forecast?
• Bullpen: If the starter exits early, who's coming in — and are they prone to the long ball?
• Weather: Wind direction and temperature matter. Always check before first pitch.
• Head-to-Head History: Past at-bats against today's starter can reveal hidden edges.

Responsible gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-MY-RESET for crisis counseling and support.