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Reds vs. Cubs prediction: Why Cubs are favored to win Tuesday's MLB matchup [5/5/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs predictions for MLB Tuesday.
The Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds will lock horns in MLB action at Wrigley Field on Tuesday, starting at 7:40 PM ET.
The Cubs will send Jameson Taillon (2-1, 4.41 ERA) to the mound, up against Andrew Abbott (1-2, 5.97 ERA) for the Reds.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven MLB model predicts the Cubs as the most likely winner of the Reds vs. Cubs game.
This article offers a closer look at Tuesday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Reds vs. Cubs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Tuesday's MLB matchup between the Reds and Cubs, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Cubs a 60% chance of defeating the Reds.
According to our model, the Reds (+1.5) have a 59% chance of covering the run line, while the 8-run over/under has a 54% chance of going over.
Reds vs. Cubs odds [5/5/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Reds | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-146) | -1.5 (+135) |
| Moneyline | +140 | -166 |
| Total | o8 (-115) | u8 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Reds vs. Cubs picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Reds +1.5 | -146 |
| Moneyline | Reds | +140 |
| Total | Over 8 | -115 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Reds vs. Cubs game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's MLB action between the Cubs and Reds at Wrigley Field is scheduled to start at 7:40 PM ET.
- Who: Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
- Date: Tuesday, May 5, 2026
- Time: 7:40 PM ET/4:40PM PT
- Venue: Wrigley Field
Conclusion
We predict the Cubs, with a 60% win probability, will likely beat the Reds in Tuesday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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