Choose Your Own NBA Finals Adventure: Finding the Perfect Bet in Thunder vs. Pacers

Updated: Jun 4, 2025, 2:57 PM ET | First published: Jun 4, 2025, 2:55 PM ET

Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer

Grab your treasure maps and gear, because we're going an an NBA Finals adventure. Make your choices and find the perfect bet to place on the 2025 NBA Finals series between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers.

NBA Finals, Oklahoma City Thunder, Indiana Pacers, NBA Betting, NBA Predictions, Thunder vs. Pacers — We trace our path throughout the NBA Finals betting markets to find the perfect wager in Pacers vs. Thunder.

The start of the 2025 NBA Finals between the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder is imminent. It’s been a thrilling season, matched with equally thrilling playoffs that have been packed full of storylines. A Cinderella-esque Indiana Pacers facing a top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder squad presents a number of intriguing storylines and plenty of betting angles.

To highlight how much of an adventure this NBA year has been, we’re throwing it back with a ‘Choose Your Own Adventure’ approach to wagering on these NBA Finals. There’s plenty of value to be found among some interesting markets and it can be overwhelming, so we thought it’d be fun to help guide you to your perfect Finals bet.

We’ll ask a series of questions and you'll make your pick between the available options. Follow the instructions next to your selection. Your answers to each will determine your path, and ultimately your recommended wager(s) to place on the Finals, based on your own conclusions and supported by Dimers data.

For the purposes of this article, we'll be using the betting odds at bet365 sportsbook as a baseline. If you don't have bet365 available to you, then shop around for your best odds. If you are in a legal bet365 state but haven't signed up, new users can score $150 in bonus bets with their first $5 bet. Learn more here or tap the offer card below!

How to claim this promo

Read review

TRENDING

Bet $5 Get $150 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose! Use Code DIMERS

T&C's apply.

Read review

How to claim

1. Who Wins the NBA Finals?

Thunder Win – Scroll down to Question 1A
Pacers Win – BET Pacers to Win (+500) or scroll down to Question 1B
Can’t decide – Scroll down to Question 2

There’s no better or more logical way to get started than by picking your champion!

1A. Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Win Finals MVP?

YES – Scroll down to Question 2
NO – Scroll down to Question 1C

No matter if you pick “yes” or “no,” the value for SGA to win the series MVP at -550 is non-existent, just like the Thunder to win the series at -700, which is why we've skipped here in the first place. We’ll have to search other options or a different market if you want a Thunder ticket in your pocket.

1B. Will Tyrese Haliburton Win Finals MVP?

YES – BET Tyrese Haliburton to Win Finals MVP (+700) or scroll down to Question 2
NO – Scroll to Question 1D

If you’ve picked the Pacers to win, the obvious awards choice is Tyrese Haliburton to win Finals MVP. Though Jaylen Brown won for the Celtics last year, the award almost always goes to the best player on the winning team. With Haliburton, you get his odds to win the award at a better price than the Pacers' odds to win the title (+500), and the correlation between the two is extremely high.

Plus, bet365 has boosted Haliburton's odds to +800, presenting an even stronger value on the postseason's standout player.

1C. Will Jalen Williams Win Finals MVP?

YES – BET Jalen Williams to Win Finals MVP (+3300) and/or Jalen Williams 20+ PTS in every game (+700 FanDuel only)
NO – Scroll down to Question 2

Should someone on the Thunder not named SGA win the Finals MVP, it's likely to be Jalen Williams. He's second on the team in scoring, assists, steals and third in rebounds. Obviously, you’ll need something significant to prevent Shai from winning like an unfortunate injury, a missed game or an all-out shutdown from the Pacers, as well as a series-winning performance from Williams.

1D. Will Pascal Siakam win Finals MVP?

YES – BET Pascal Siakam to Win Finals MVP (+1600)
NO – Spread your wager across Nesmith, Nembhard and any other player.

If the Pacers win the Finals and Tyrese Haliburton doesn’t secure the Finals MVP for whatever reason (injury, poor play, takes a backseat to the rest of the team, voters are drunk, etc), it will likely be Pascal Siakam, the team's leading scorer and board crasher. If for some insane reason it's not one of Siakam or Hali, it's completely up for grabs and the odds are wildly long, so spread your bet across the other candidates. Example: if your wager is $15, place $5 on Nesmith and Nembhard at +30000 each, and $5 on another player.

2. How Many Games Will There Be in the NBA Finals?

4 or 5 – Scroll to Question 2A
6 – Scroll to Question 2B
7 – Scroll to Question 3

There are two options for a seven-game series: either it’s competitive or it isn’t. If you think these teams are more closely matched than they’d appear, you’ll have a few options. If you’re expecting a sweep or gentlemen’s sweep, the Thunder will most likely be your play, as a Pacers 4-0 or 4-1 victory combine for just 4.0% of our model's potential results.

Our model's simulations for every series result in a bar graph.

2A. Do the Thunder sweep the Finals?

YES – BET Thunder win series 4-0 (+300)
NO – Scroll to Question 2B

If you're all OKC, then take them for the sweep. No faith for the Pacers? Come on, they’ve still got a 1 in 6 chance from our model!

2B. Do the Thunder win the Finals?

YES – BET Thunder win series 4-1 (+190)
NO – BET Pacers win series 4-1 (+3500)

You should only be here if you expect the series to end in exactly 5 games. This is where you want to invest your money if you think the series is a short one but don’t see a sweep. The Thunder in five is our most frequent result, clocking in at 30.0% of the time, while a Pacers five-game win is just 2.6%.

2C. Do the Thunder win the Finals?

YES – BET Thunder win series 4-2 (+375)
NO – BET Pacers win series 4-2 (+140)

If you’re not predicting seven games but a competitive series, this is the end of the line for you. Pick your winner and lock them in to win in six. A 4-2 series win is our most likely scenario for a Pacers win at 8.3%, and also some value at +1400, with our fair price closer to +1100. The Thunder are +375, much better than their -700 series odds.

3. Will the Finals Reach Game 7?

YES – BET Thunder Win 4-3 (+500), Pacers Win 4-3 (+1100) or Exactly 7 Games (+330)
NO – We didn't send you here. Start over!

This is a very specific market, but if you’re high on the likelihood of a Game 7 and bet on all three of these plays, you’ll guarantee yourself two of these wins if the series goes the limit.

The series reaching a Game 7 is our second-most likely result at 25.6%, regardless of who wins, with the Thunder of course predicted as champions.

You've reached the end of the adventure! Now, go place your bet!

Be sure to check back for more NBA Finals betting content before Game 1 tips off on Thursday night.

Dimers' 2025 NBA Playoffs Betting Resources

NBA Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every game, every day
NBA Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every individual matchup
Best NBA Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
NBA Futures Odds: Who will win the 2025 NBA Finals?
NBA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

Responsible Gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.

To make sure you get accurate and helpful information, this guide has been edited by Nick Slade as part of our fact-checking process.

Written by

Dave Garofolo

Content Producer

Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.

Advertiser disclosure