2025 NBA Finals Predictions, Best Bets and Insights for Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Series

The NBA Finals are upon us. It’s been a wild postseason so far, with the Indiana Pacers storming through the Eastern Conference to make their first NBA Finals appearance since 2000. Meanwhile, the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder have emerged as the team to beat in the West—and sportsbooks agree.

Game 1 tips off Thursday, June 5 in Oklahoma City, with the Thunder installed as commanding -700 favorites to win the championship. Indiana, despite a strong playoff run, enters the Finals as longshots at +550.

Let’s break down the series and find our best betting value, utilizing our Dimers Pro insights and the NBA betting markets on the sportsbooks.

How To Bet on the NBA Finals

There are countless ways to approach NBA Finals betting. Between outright winners, MVP futures, series spreads, and prop bets, there’s always an angle with value—even in a lopsided matchup.

That’s where we come in.

Use Dimers’ NBA betting tools like our Best NBA Props, NBA Player Trends, Player Projections Hub and NBA Predictions to guide you to the sharpest plays throughout the series. New subscribers can get their first month of Dimers Pro for 20% off with promo code 20BASKETBALL - that's less than $1/day!

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Who Will Win the 2025 NBA Finals?

The Thunder are overwhelming favorites to take home the Larry O’Brien Trophy—and with good reason. They’ve handled every challenge this postseason, sweeping Memphis in Round 1, surviving a grueling seven-game series with the defending champion Denver Nuggets in the second round and cruising past the Minnesota Timberwolves in five games in the Western Conference Finals.

Our model gives Oklahoma City an 84.5% chance to win the series. Even at -700 odds (best available at BetMGM), their implied probability is 87.5%, meaning there’s little to no outright value left. Still, few would argue against their dominance and balance on both ends of the floor.

The Pacers, on the other hand, have been as close to a Cinderella story as we see in the NBA. They entered the playoffs as a 4-seed and have gone 12-4 so far, dispatching the Bucks in five games, shocking the top-seeded Cavaliers in five, and then finishing off the Knicks in six in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Our model gives Indiana just a 15.5% chance of winning the Finals, but with best odds at +550 (FanDuel), their price is fair if you believe in an upset.

Betting on the Thunder in the NBA Finals

If you’re confident in an Oklahoma City title, betting them outright at -700 likely isn’t your move. That price is steep, and the return is minimal. Instead, look at alternate ways to back them.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-550) is the clear favorite for Finals MVP. He’s been the driving force all postseason and will be nearly impossible to outshine if the Thunder win it all. But if you want a longer shot, consider Jalen Williams (25-1) or Chet Holmgren (66-1)—both could swing games with standout performances on either end of the floor.

Not into MVP bets? The series spread offers better value. You can get Thunder -1.5 games around -290, which would cash if OKC wins 4-0, 4-1, or 4-2. Or you could take the Exact Series Total Games (e.g., 6+ games at +300) if you think Indiana can steal a couple.

RELATED: Projections for Every Player in Thunder-Pacers Series

How to Bet on the Pacers in the NBA Finals

Indiana offers more attractive numbers if you believe the improbable is possible. The Pacers’ outright win odds sit at +550, implying just a 15.4% chance. But you can target Tyrese Haliburton (+700) for Finals MVP if you want to zero in on the most likely engine of any Indiana success.

Looking further down the board, Pascal Siakam (18-1) and Myles Turner (200-1) could both play pivotal roles. But realistically, if the Pacers win, Haliburton will almost certainly have led the way.

If you want higher upside, consider Exact Series Score bets. A Pacers 4-2 win fetches odds north of +1000 at most books, while 4-3 pays out slightly more. This route gives you 2x to 3x the value of a straight Pacers ticket.

Tyrese Haliburton will look to lead the Pacers to their first title since their 1973 ABA Championship.

NBA Finals Series Betting: Exact Result

Our predictive model has simulated the NBA Finals over 10,000 times and identified the probabilities for each exact series result.

As you can, see most results are worse than the fair odds identified by DimersBOT, except Pacers 4-2 at +1400 and Thunder 4-3 at +500 based on the odds at bet365 sportsbook.

Who is the NBA Finals MVP Favorite?

Unsurprisingly, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the NBA Finals MVP favorite, but at virtually unbettable odds of -550.

Bettors looking at this market will need to look down the board and get lucky:

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC): -550

• Tyrese Haliburton (IND): +700

• Pascal Siakam (IND): 18-1

• Jalen Williams (OKC): 25-1

• Chet Holmgren (OKC): 66-1

• Alex Caruso (OKC): 200-1

• Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC): 200-1

• Myles Turner (IND): 200-1

• Aaron Nesmith (IND): 300-1

• Luguentz Dort (IND): 300-1

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2025 NBA Finals Schedule

Here's the full NBA Finals Schedule, all times Eastern.

• Game 1: Pacers at Thunder – Thursday, June 5, 8:30 p.m.

• Game 2: Pacers at Thunder – Sunday, June 8, 8:00 p.m.

• Game 3: Thunder at Pacers – Wednesday, June 11, 8:00 p.m.

• Game 4: Thunder at Pacers – Friday, June 13, 8:30 p.m.

• Game 5 (if necessary): Pacers at Thunder – Monday, June 16, 8:30 p.m.

• Game 6 (if necessary): Thunder at Pacers – Thursday, June 19, 8:30 p.m.

• Game 7 (if necessary): Pacers at Thunder – Sunday, June 22, 8:00 p.m.

Dimers' 2025 NBA Playoffs Betting Resources

• NBA Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every game, every day
• NBA Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every individual matchup
• Best NBA Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NBA Futures Odds: Who will win the 2025 NBA Finals?
• NBA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

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