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Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev prediction, odds, picks for ATP Indian Wells Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Alcaraz vs Medvedev predictions for ATP Indian Wells Open.
Carlos Alcaraz will take on Daniil Medvedev in the semifinals at the ATP Indian Wells event on Saturday.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced tennis model predicts Carlos Alcaraz as the most likely winner of the Alcaraz vs. Medvedev match.
This article offers further insights into Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.
Alcaraz vs. Medvedev prediction: Who will win and advance to the final?
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's Alcaraz-Medvedev men's singles match 10,000 times as part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives Alcaraz an 82% chance of winning against Medvedev at the ATP Indian Wells Open tournament.
Additionally, Alcaraz has a 76% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Alcaraz (-4.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 21.5 games has a 55% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Alcaraz | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -500 | +400 |
| First Set | -400 | +300 |
| Game Spread | -4.5 (-104) | +4.5 (-130) |
| Total Games | o21.5 (-110) | u21.5 (-112) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Alcaraz vs. Medvedev picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alcaraz | -500 |
| First Set | Medvedev | -112 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 21.5 total games.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Alcaraz vs. Medvedev updates and essential details
The ATP Indian Wells Open match between Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev is scheduled to commence on Saturday at 6:00 PM ET.
- Who: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev
- Date: Saturday, March 14, 2026
- Approx. Time: 6:00 PM ET/3:00PM PT
- Tournament: ATP Indian Wells, USA Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Semifinals
All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
We predict Carlos Alcaraz, with an 82% win probability, will likely beat Daniil Medvedev at the ATP Indian Wells Open tournament.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Alcaraz vs. Medvedev insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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