Lorenzo Sonego vs. Tommy Paul prediction, odds, picks for French Open 2026

Lorenzo Sonego and Tommy Paul will meet in the second round of the French Open 2026 on Wednesday.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced tennis model projects Tommy Paul as the most likely winner of the Sonego vs. Paul match.

This article offers further insights into Wednesday's match, including best bets and picks.

Sonego vs. Paul prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 32?

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Wednesday's Sonego-Paul men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives Paul an 83% chance of beating Sonego in the French Open 2026.

Additionally, Paul has a 74% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Paul (-6.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 33.5 games has a 51% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Lorenzo Sonego vs. Tommy Paul odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Sonego	Paul
Moneyline	+500	-699
First Set	+275	-357
Game Spread	+6.5 (+100)	-6.5 (-160)
Total Games	o33.5 (-106)	u33.5 (-126)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Sonego vs. Paul picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Moneyline	Sonego	+500
First Set	Paul	-106

According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is Lorenzo Sonego to win.

Although Sonego is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Sonego vs. Paul updates and essential details

The French Open 2026 match between Lorenzo Sonego and Tommy Paul is scheduled to commence on Wednesday at 1:10 PM ET.

• Who: Lorenzo Sonego vs. Tommy Paul
• Date: Wednesday, May 27, 2026
• Approx. Time: 1:10 PM ET/10:10AM PT
• Tournament: French Open Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Second round

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Tommy Paul, with an 83% win probability, will likely beat Lorenzo Sonego at the French Open 2026.

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