A mega-slate of 12 NBA games greets us on Wednesday which means we've got a lot to choose from when it comes to our player prop picks.
So how do our player prop picks work exactly?
Well, our predictive analytics model has crunched the numbers ahead of tonight's games, giving us the likely stats projections which we've matched up against the sportsbook lines to find the biggest differential and edge for you to make a play on. While this article contains the best edges that we've found against the books, you can run this exercise yourself by looking in the Pre-Game Predictions tab of the game of your choice in the NBA Bet Hub.
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It's Wednesday, April 21. Here is what the data is telling us for tonight's NBA player props ⏬
PLAYER: Darius Garland
BET: 🔥OVER 18.5 points with PointsBet (-112)
Garland looks to have found his mojo once again after a mid-season malaise, going for 20 points or more in each of his last three games. With the Cavs meeting a Zach LaVine-less Bulls, this should be a close encounter between two evenly matched teams which means a lot of minutes and a lot of opportunities for the Cleveland guard to pour in the points.
PLAYER: Caris LeVert
BET: 🔥UNDER 22.5 points with FanDuel Sportsbook (-106)
Our DimersBOT projections and the sportsbooks just do not see eye-to-eye on this one with a large differential forecasted. We've got LeVert, who is enduring a massive shooting slump from the perimeter (29% over his last 10 games), to score only 16 points, well under the 22.5 line set here. Shooting form aside, the Pacers are also expected to blowout the Thunder which could heavily restrict the minutes of the combo forward-guard.
PLAYER: Saddiq Bey
BET: 🔥OVER 12.5 points with PointsBet (-112)
The Detroit Pistons rookie has been on more often than not over this recent stretch, hitting 14 points or more in five of his last six games, including a 20-point performance against the Cavaliers in which he nailed five 3s in the first quarter. He generally does score a lot of his points in bunches early in games, so look for Bey to get past this prop relatively quickly.
PLAYER: Michael Porter Jr
BET: 🔥OVER 21.5 points with BetMGM (+100)
Nikola Jokic's 47-point game against the Grizzlies earlier this week has juiced up the Joker's prop total set by the books to 28.5 which has had a trickle down effect on other players on the Nuggets as the sportsbooks assume there won't be enough points to go around. Their stupidity will be punished, though, by Michael Porter Jr.
We are being offered plus odds for Porter to go over 21.5 points and we are happy to take that on given his recent form and the amount of shots he will get as Jokic helps to facilitate. If Porter can muster somewhere between 16-20 shots, this one is in the bag at great odds.
🔥 Garland o18.5 points
🔥 LeVert u22.5 points
🔥 Bey o12.5 points
🔥 Porter Jr. o21.5 points
💰 Parlay with FanDuel Sportsbook (+1239)