It was a slow start on our daily picks for the week yesterday, going 1-2 on our plays, but never fear - we're never down for long. Let's get into Tuesday's huge card.
It's Tuesday May 18, and, as always, we've simulated all of tonight's games 10,000 times each determining where the value lies for baseball bettors across the United States.
With MLB betting picks, probabilities, odds and predicted scores featured each and every day, check out our top plays for tonight's games.
Your game not here? Find out who we're betting on in every game via our MLB Bet Hub where we deliver you predictions and suggested bets, based on the edge we've identified against the sportsbooks' odds.
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Here is what the data is telling us for today's MLB games ⏬
BET: 🔥 Total runs OVER 8.5 with Unibet (-103)
📈 52.5% probability
We're running it back with the pick that we cashed yesterday, taking another Over play for the Giants and Reds.
DimersBOT has the Reds as favorites in this one, which is a little surprising given that starting Cincinnati pitcher Luis Castillo has a 1-5 starting record this season, but we are going to manipulate the data to our advantage with the Overs because Castillo, who has pitched 37 innings this season, has given up 13.26 hits per 9 innings for an ERA of 7.71 which is horrifying. IF the Reds are to win, they're going to have to keep up on offense, because the Giants have a very big opportunity to pile on the runs in the early innings.
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MORE: Giants @ Reds predictions
BET: 🔥 Total runs OVER 8 (-115) with William Hill Sportsbook
📈 56.0% probability
The White Sox embarrassed the Twins last night, winning 16-4 and our data is expecting a repeat dosage in the second game of the series tonight. They'll be facing a tougher pitching assignment in Michael Pineda, but it shouldn't bother them overall. The Over is 7-1 in their last eight games where they've played as road favorite
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BET: 🔥 Total runs OVER 7.5 with BetMGM (-112)
📈 61.0% probability, 10.5% edge on the sportsbooks' odds
This is one of the biggest probabilities and edges we've seen, and with good reason. We've been going on and on about how bad this Angels run defense is, but lately their offense has started producing at a high level also to make them a bonafide Over threat every single night. Games featuring the Halos have averaged 9.6 runs over the past five.
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🔥 Giants/Reds o8.5 runs
🔥 White Sox/Twins o8 runs
🔥 Indians/Angels o7.5 runs
💰 Parlay with UniBet (+633)
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