MLB picks today: Monday's MLB best bets include Astros vs. Guardians play [4/20/2026]

Astros vs. Guardians over 7.5 runs (-104)

• Edge: 5.6%
• Probability: 56.6%
• Matchup: Astros vs. Guardians (6:10PM ET, Monday)

Our model has identified value on over 7.5 runs in Astros vs. Guardians at -104 odds. A 56.6% probability produces an edge of 5.6%, making this the strongest play for today's MLB slate.

Braves vs. Nationals over 8 runs (-110)

• Edge: 5.3%
• Probability: 57.7%
• Matchup: Braves vs. Nationals (6:45PM ET, Monday)

Braves vs. Nationals over 8 runs carries a 5.3% edge and a probability of 57.7% at -110 odds, according to our model.

Dodgers vs. Rockies over 11 runs (-120)

• Edge: 3.8%
• Probability: 58.3%
• Matchup: Dodgers vs. Rockies (8:40PM ET, Monday)

Dodgers vs. Rockies over 11 runs at -120 odds shows a 3.8% edge, supported by a 58.3% probability in simulations.

Tigers vs. Red Sox over 8 runs (+100)

• Edge: 3.3%
• Probability: 53.3%
• Matchup: Tigers vs. Red Sox (11:10AM ET, Monday)

A 3.3% edge and 53.3% probability make Tigers vs. Red Sox over 8 runs at a value play in the Tigers vs. Red Sox matchup, per our model.

Phillies vs. Cubs over 7.5 runs (-104)

• Edge: 2.8%
• Probability: 53.8%
• Matchup: Phillies vs. Cubs (7:40PM ET, Monday)

Phillies vs. Cubs over 7.5 runs at -104 odds presents a 2.8% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 53.8%.

Blue Jays vs. Angels over 7.5 runs (-104)

• Edge: 2.5%
• Probability: 53.5%
• Matchup: Blue Jays vs. Angels (9:38PM ET, Monday)

Our model finds value on over 7.5 runs in Blue Jays vs. Angels at -104 odds, supported by an edge of 2.5%.

Orioles vs. Royals over 8.5 runs (-120)

• Edge: 2.0%
• Probability: 56.6%
• Matchup: Orioles vs. Royals (7:40PM ET, Monday)

Our model has uncovered value on Orioles vs. Royals over 8.5 runs at -120 odds. A 56.6% probability produces a 2.0% edge, making this a strong play for today's MLB action.

MLB best bets summary: Monday, 4/20/2026

As of 3:03AM ET, here are our top MLB bets by edge recommended by our model:

Matchup	Bet	Odds	Edge	Probability
Astros vs. Guardians	Over 7.5 Runs	-104 @ DraftKings	5.6%	56.6%
Braves vs. Nationals	Over 8 Runs	-110 @ FanDuel	5.3%	57.7%
Dodgers vs. Rockies	Over 11 Runs	-120 @ FanDuel	3.8%	58.3%
Tigers vs. Red Sox	Over 8 Runs	+100 @ FanDuel	3.3%	53.3%
Phillies vs. Cubs	Over 7.5 Runs	-104 @ DraftKings	2.8%	53.8%
Blue Jays vs. Angels	Over 7.5 Runs	-104 @ DraftKings	2.5%	53.5%
Orioles vs. Royals	Over 8.5 Runs	-120 @ BetMGM	2.0%	56.6%

List of upcoming MLB games to bet on [4/20/2026]

• Tigers vs. Red Sox (11:10AM ET, Monday)
• Astros vs. Guardians (6:10PM ET, Monday)
• Cardinals vs. Marlins (6:40PM ET, Monday)
• Braves vs. Nationals (6:45PM ET, Monday)
• Orioles vs. Royals (7:40PM ET, Monday)
• Phillies vs. Cubs (7:40PM ET, Monday)
• Dodgers vs. Rockies (8:40PM ET, Monday)
• Blue Jays vs. Angels (9:38PM ET, Monday)
• Athletics vs. Mariners (9:40PM ET, Monday)

Conclusion

Our MLB best bets are locked and loaded for April 20, 2026, featuring plays such as over 7.5 runs in the Astros vs. Guardians matchup and over 8 runs in the Braves vs. Nationals matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

Our predictions are grounded in current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.