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Phillies vs. Cubs prediction: Why Cubs are favored to win Monday's MLB matchup [4/20/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs predictions for MLB Monday.
MLB action continues on Monday at 7:40 PM ET as the Philadelphia Phillies lock horns with the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field.
The Cubs will send Colin Rea (2-0, 3.64 ERA) to the mound, up against Aaron Nola (1-1, 4.03 ERA) for the Phillies.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Cubs a slight edge with a 52% win probability over the Phillies.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Monday's Phillies vs. Cubs matchup, including best bets and picks.
Phillies vs. Cubs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's MLB game between the Phillies and Cubs, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Cubs a 52% chance of beating the Phillies.
According to our model, the Cubs (+1.5) have a 64% chance of covering the run line, while the 7.5-run over/under has a 51% chance of going over.
Phillies vs. Cubs odds [4/20/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Phillies | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (+164) | +1.5 (-183) |
| Moneyline | -105 | -110 |
| Total | o7.5 (-105) | u7.5 (+100) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Phillies vs. Cubs picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Cubs +1.5 | -183 |
| Moneyline | Cubs | -110 |
| Total | Over 7.5 | -105 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Cubs to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Phillies vs. Cubs game-day updates and essential details
Monday's MLB game between the Cubs and Phillies at Wrigley Field is scheduled to begin at 7:40 PM ET.
- Who: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs
- Date: Monday, April 20, 2026
- Time: 7:40 PM ET/4:40PM PT
- Venue: Wrigley Field
Conclusion
We predict the Cubs, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat the Phillies in Monday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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