AFC South Betting Preview - Division Winner Odds, Win Totals and Team Outlooks

AFC South Betting Preview - Division Winner Odds, Win Totals and Team Outlooks

Can you feel it? The 2023-24 NFL season is inching closer by the day. As of this writing, we are now just weeks away from kickoff between the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions on Thursday, September 7. We can’t wait to dive into betting on this season, from parlays and futures to TD round Robins and more, this year has potential to be our best yet.

Full-fledged preseason is here. This is where we’ll see who cracks the roster bubble, shaping the final outlook for each team and finalizing the player pools from which we’ll be drafting our fantasy squads. We even get to watch Aaron Rodgers and Co. on Hard Knocks this year, which is proving to be top-quality entertainment.

In order to fully prep for the wealth of betting opportunities we’ll have this season, we’ve analyzed each of the eight NFL divisions. Combining our cutting-edge predictive analytics model with our own know-how, we look at key offseason moves, the outlook for each team as predicted by DimersBOT and even some futures bets with value worth jumping on now.

MORE: Three Early NFL Futures Bets to Make Now

Before we get started, we have to recommend that you head over to our revamped Best Sportsbooks section which features an all-new user-friendly look, complete with in-depth reviews of every online sportsbook. Even better, you’ll be able to see which books are available to you specifically along with every exclusive promo offer you can take advantage of. The NFL is far and away the most popular sport in the United States for betting and there are countless daily and weekly promotions throughout the season. Having access to every possible book you can is crucial to turning a long-term profit over the season and beyond.

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NFL Divisional Previews

AFC East | AFC WestAFC South | AFC North

NFC East | NFC North | NFC West | NFC South

MORE: Week 1 Game-by-Game Predictions

AFC South Division Preview

JAX Jaguars -155 52.0%
TEN Titans +350 30.4%
IND Colts +600 11.6%
HOU Texans +1000 5.9%

Play this exact order of the AFC South standings for +310 on DraftKings!

Jacksonville Jaguars

2022-23 Record: 9-8, lost in Divisional Round

2023 Win Total: O/U 9.5

Key Offseason Moves: Re-signed TE Evan Engram. Drafted T Anton Harrison

Outlook: The 2022-23 season was the culmination of the franchise overhaul the Jaguars franchise badly needed. After jettisoning the first-year failure of a head coach, Urban Meyer, the Jags brought in Super Bowl-winning HC Doug Pederson to steer the ship. And with Trevor Lawrence as his first mate, they certainly did. Snatching the Titans’ playoff hopes out from underneath them with an end-of-season run that included wins in six of their final seven games, coming to a head with a Week 18 victory over Tennessee. The following week, Lawrence shook off a 4-interception first half to guide the Jaguars to a win over the Chargers in the Wild Card round, before respectably losing to the eventual Super Bowl champ Chiefs the following week.

With the wind at their back and a rabid fanbase in #DUUUVAL County, anything short of a repeat of last season’s effort will likely be considered a disappointment. The obvious favorite to win the division at -155, they get a 52% probability from our model to win the AFC South. At a 60% implied probability, this doesn’t give us any value. Moving up another level, we see the Jaguars have a 7.5% probability to win the AFC, fifth-best in the conference, at their best odds of +1400. That’s actually a slim edge, as the odds imply just a 6.7% chance. It’s a solid bet if you’re this high on the Jaguars. To hoist the Lombardi, we give them a 3.2% chance, dead-on with their odds of +3000.

Takeaway: As mentioned, you’re getting value on the Jaguars to win the AFC at +1400. For reference, the other teams with similar probabilities have worse odds by comparison: Ravens:  8% (+1000), Chargers: 6.5% (+1400), Dolphins: 5.9% (+1300) and the Jets: 4% (+1000). This is the perfect example of what we look for here at Dimers.

As far as their win total is concerned, our most frequent result for the Jaguars is 10 wins, making their Over the better, play but the -140 isn’t very appealing. Now, you can grab their exact wins at either 10 or 11 at +500. If you think it’s a regression year for the Jags, 8 wins at +700 looks like the way to go, but given our model’s average, we wouldn’t stray too far away from that range.

For a longshot player prop worth a look, WR Calvin Ridley to reach 1,500+ receiving yards at +2000 makes a sweet play. He put up 1,374 yards when he played 15 games in 2020. With an extra game on the schedule and hopefully some fresh legs after a year off from a gambling suspension, this has some major upside.

I’m also personally a fan of Trevor Lawrence winning MVP. Not necessarily because I think it’s his year, he’s got stiff competition at the top, but because the value at +1500 is great for a player who could be a top-5 passer in a top-10 offense. His time is coming soon.

MORE: Best Odds for Every NFL Game

Tennessee Titans

2022 Record: 7-10, 2nd place in AFC South

2023 Win Total: O/U 7.5

Key Offseason Moves: Hired GM Ran Carthon. Promoted Tim Kelly to Offensive Coordinator. Drafted QB Will Levis. Signed WR DeAndre Hopkins

Outlook: The Titans were expected to win the AFC South as the most experienced team of the bunch, but a 7-3 start to the year gave way to a seven-game losing streak to end the season. Now, they’ll be fighting uphill against a young but talented Jaguars roster helmed by Doug Pederson. Mike Vrabel’s defense is no slouch, though, and the franchise is hoping that new OC hire Tim Kelly can craft a compelling enough offense with aging Ryan Tannehill under center.

He has all the tools, with RB Derrick Henry, new acquisition WR DeAndre Hopkins and second-year WR Treylon Burks. If this team can regularly put points on the board, they have the ability to take back control of the AFC South.

Our model agrees, too, giving them a 30.4% chance of doing so and at odds of +350, we’re getting a significant edge of 8% based on their implied probability of 22%. There are not many good outright division winners for the second favorites, but this absolutely is one. As far as wins are concerned, our average win total for the Titans is 8.5, a full win over their line of 7.5.

Takeaway: You can take the Titans’ Over on their win total of 7.5 at -125, or bump it up to over 8.5 for +150. If you’re keen on that over, grabbing their exact wins of 9 at +700 or even 10 at +900 looks the way to go. If you like them to win the division, you can also consider an exact order of Titans-Jaguars-Colts-Texans at +600, or swap the Colts and Texans for +1200.

If you’re very much against their win total or their division chances, it’s probably due in part to their fairly tough opening schedule. Their first four games are @ Saints, vs. Chargers, @ Browns, vs. Bengals before their first “easier” game against the Colts in Week 5. With the Ravens in Week 6, it makes the Titans at +1100 as good a bet as any to be the last winless team, but only if you’re not buying an improved team.

Derrick Henry to lead the league in rushing yards at +650 is a strong bet. When healthy for a full year, he’s either finished first or second in each of the last four seasons.

The Titans have no players who would reasonably enter any awards conversations.

RELATED: 2023 NFL Preseason Futures Odds

Indianapolis Colts

2022 Record: 4-12-1, 3rd place in AFC South

2023 Win Total: O/U 6.5

Key Offseason Moves: Hired HC Shane Steichen. Drafted QB Anthony Richardson, WR Josh Downs. Signed QB Gardner Minshew. Lost EDGE Yannick Ngakoue

Outlook: The Colts tried the Carson Wentz experiment to the tune of failure in 2021, before handing the keys to the relic that is Matt Ryan. Things went about as expected for the Colts in that situation, with Ryan regularly failing to complete passes downfield and having to turn to Nick Foles and second-year QB Sam Ehlinger down the stretch. Frank Reich got the boot, and Jim Irsay turned to Jeff Saturday who went 1-7, including a humiliating, NFL-history-making choke job when they coughed up a 33-point lead to the Minnesota Vikings.

Now turning to former Eagles OC Shane Steichen, it seems unlikely the Colts will be prepared to contend with the bigger dogs of the AFC South. Their best offensive player, RB Jonathan Taylor, is disgruntled and absent from camp. They need to develop a new identity on offense while making up for the inevitable shortcomings of the defense. Down the line, this team may be a contender, but with just an 11.6% chance to win the AFC South at +600, it’s time to look beyond the division for betting value.

Takeaway: The Colts' win total is juiced -120 to the Over at 6.5. After winning just four games this season and the book favoring them to go over implies at least seven wins, a difference of three wins could make them a solid candidate for the most-improved team, which is a good price at +800. For reference, our model’s most frequent result for the Colts is a 7-10 record, which would come in at +500 for the exact record.

If you think it’s within the realm of possibility that they lose their Week 2 game on the road against the Texans and their Week 4 game against the Rams, then last winless team at +1800 is a great look. Expect early struggles from this team, no matter who starts under center.

Anthony Richarson to win Offensive Rookie of the Year is a solid play at +600, as he’ll likely be getting plays done with his legs and the flash always catches the voters’ attention.

RELATED: AFC East Division Preview

Houston Texans

2022 Record: 3-13-1

2023 Win Total: O/U 6.5

Key Offseason Moves: Hired HC DeMeco Ryans. Drafted QB C.J. Stroud, EDGE Will Anderson Jr. Signed TE Dalton Schultz, WR Robert Woods, RB Devin Singeltary, S Jimmie Ward

Outlook: The Texans managed one of the most non-Texan-like things this offseason; do a great job. They upgraded at multiple positions on both sides of the ball via free agency but did so without breaking the bank. In the draft, they added potential franchise cornerstones in QB C.J. Stroud and EDGE Will Anderson Jr. To top it all off, their new head coach DeMeco Ryans headlined one of the top defenses in the NFL for the past two years with the 49ers. The Texans officially start their rebuild this season.

It's a pretty good time for them to do so, as they are arguably ahead of the Colts from a talent standpoint and are probably just one or two seasons from contending for the AFC South title if all goes as planned. That’s for another time, though, as our model gives them just a 5.9% chance to win the division, while their best odds of +100 suggest 9%. No thanks.

Their win total is set at 6.5 and juiced to the Under at -130. This is in line with our model’s projections with their most likely record being 6-11.

Takeaway: Like most teams, their most likely exact wins props are set at +500 for either 5 or 6, which make decent bets on their own. At +700, they’re an intriguing bet for the most improved team, which will likely require any team to improve their record by at least 3, more likely 4, wins. The Bears are the most likely candidate to do, hence their favorite odds of +210 but they don’t exactly have an easy schedule. While we project the Bears for 7 wins, anything can happen in the NFL.

Anything like, the Texans again being one of the worst teams in the league? Certainly, which is why picking them to be the last winless team is also worth a look at +1100, as is their fewest wins bet at +850, another play supported by our model’s win projections.

In the awards market, there’s plenty of value. Will Anderson to win DROY at +400, CJ Stroud to win OROY at +850 and DeMeco Ryans to win Coach of the Year at +2200 are all worth a look, particularly if you are higher on the Texans than average.

What about Dameon Pierce to notch 100+ rushing yards in 8 individual games at +1400? In a six-game midseason stretch last year, he had two games with 130+ and three with 90+. A full healthy season could have big things in store for Pierce in Year 2.

MORE: Week 1 Game-by-Game Predictions

Get a head start on your NFL wagers with our full slate of NFL tools, all powered by our cutting-edge predictive analytics models known as ‘DimersBOT!’ We run 1000s of simulations for every game all season long to help identify where the books are mispricing their odds, all to help you turn a profit.

Remember to enjoy gambling responsibly. Treat it as entertainment, not a way to make money and only gamble with funds you can afford to lose. Know when to stop and seek support if needed. Remember, gambling should be a fun and enjoyable experience. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.

Dave Garofolo
Content Producer

Dave Garofolo, a seasoned fantasy sports and betting enthusiast with a special affection for MLB and NFL, uses his deep knowledge to craft game previews for the NBA, MLB, and NFL. He also brings his expertise to the golf world with tournament previews and parlays for the PGA TOUR and major golf tournaments. Additionally, Dave offers valuable props for NBA, MLB, NHL, and NCAAM basketball, along with best bets for MLB, NHL, and NCAAM. 

When not delving into the world of sports, Dave is an avid advocate for New Haven pizza, enjoys reading comic books, gardening, and spending time with his cats. His broad interests and detailed sports insights ensure that his contributions are both engaging and informative.

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