Jul 13, 2025
New FanDuel Promo Code: $150 betting bonus and free MLB TV streaming now available for MLB All-Star Week
Read Article 2025 RBC Canadian Open Picks, Odds, Predictions at TPC Toronto led by Corey Conners
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
We put every effort into ensuring information on Dimers is accurate. But double-check details that matter to you before making any wager.
The 2025 RBC Canadian Open tees off on Thursday, June 5 at TPC Toronto and Dave Garofolo uses predictive analytics to identify the best bets of the tournament.
The PGA TOUR heads north of the border for the 2025 RBC Canadian Open, teeing off at TPC Toronto form June 5-8. A $9,800,000 purse and 500 FedExCup points are on the line.
Two-time winner Rory McIlory leads the field, finishing Top 10 in all four starts at this event, while top-ranked Canadian Corey Conners follows as our second-most likely winner in his home country.
Let's climb the ladder at Colonial Country Club. 🪜
— Dimers.com (@DimersCom) May 21, 2025
Tommy Fleetwood has been having himself a strong year and DimersBOT identifies value all the way up the board this week.
He's our second-most likely winner and has finished Top 20 in 6/10 events in 2025. pic.twitter.com/aQqL3b0n4r
Dimers predictive golf model has run 1000s of simulations on the 2025 RBC Canadian Open, identifying intriguing bets in the winner and placement markets. Our best bets are here to help with outright winner plays, as well as recommended Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 picks where a $5 bet on any golfer can get you a $150 new-user bonus at bet365 sportsbook with the bet365 sportsbook bonus code "DIMERS".
TRENDING
Bet $5 Get $150 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose! Use Code DIMERS
How to claim this promo
This Referral Code is used for marketing/tracking purposes only. $10 minimum deposit. Paid in Bonus Bets. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. New customers only. Available in app only. Max. prize, game restrictions, time limits and T&Cs apply.
GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL OR TEXT 1-800-GAMBLER (AZ/CO/IL/IN/KY/LA/NC/NJ/OH/
TRENDING
Bet $5 Get $150 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose! Use Code DIMERS
T&C's apply.
How to claim
Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season long, where we'll be feeding you our trusted PGA best bets on a weekly basis. Our PGA predictions are sourced from the powerful Dimers Pro predictive analytics model that pulled off some big wins in 2024 and is turning out winners this year, hitting a +883 Masters parlay, identifying Scottie Scheffler to win the CJ CUP Byron Nelson, the PGA Championship, and most recently Tommy Fleetwood at the Charles Schwab Challenge and Sepp Straka at the Memorial.
Dimers Pro unlocks complete access to all of our Golf Predictions as well as best bets and props for over a dozen leagues on Dimers.com, including NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, college sports and international soccer.
Find out how to join for less than $1/day by hitting the button below.
Get 20% off Dimers Pro with code 20GOLF Get Dimers Pro Who Will Win the 2025 RBC Canadian Open?
Below are the five most likely winners of the 2025 RBC Canadian Open, the result of simulating the tournament over 10,000 times via our AI models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5, 10 and 20:
Rory McIlroy is the clear frontrunner with a 15.8% chance to win and a dominant 70.6% chance to finish inside the top 20, making him the most consistent contender in the field. His elite play is reflected in a 41.1% top-5 rate—nearly double that of most competitors.
Corey Conners has a solid 6.8% win probability and a reliable track record for strong finishes, with over half his outcomes landing inside the top 20. He’s a high-floor pick with upside to crack the top 5 (22.5%) in his homeland.
Shane Lowry offers a comparable win chance to Conners at 6.6%, with a slightly stronger top-20 projection at 56.1%. His regular contention in the top 10 and top 5 makes him a sneaky contender.
Sam Burns brings a 4.5% win chance as the highest-ranked American in the field, offering mid-tier value with some volatility. While his top-5 rate (18.5%) lags behind the leaders, he still has enough upside to make a splash.
Alex Noren rounds out the group with a 4.1% chance to win and a 42.4% likelihood of finishing top 20. Though his ceiling is slightly lower, he’s a viable dark horse with top-10 potential.
| Golfer | Win% | Top 5% | Top 10% | Top 20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | 15.8% | 41.1% | 55.8% | 70.6% |
| Corey Conners | 6.8% | 22.5% | 38.6% | 52.8% |
| Shane Lowry | 6.6% | 24.6% | 36.1% | 56.1% |
| Sam Burns | 4.5% | 18.5% | 29.8% | 46.6% |
| Alex Noren | 4.1% | 15.6% | 26.9% | 42.4% |
What is the 2025 RBC Canadian Open Course and Layout?
The RBC Canadian Open heads to a new venue in 2025, as TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley makes its debut as host. It becomes just the eighth course to host this storied tournament since 1977—and notably, the second first-time venue in the last three years.
This par-70 layout stretches to a daunting 7,389 yards, making it the 13th-longest course on the PGA TOUR since 2022. The course’s primary defense is sheer length, with six par 4s over 480 yards and four that top 500 yards.
Expect a driver-heavy setup with wide fairways, large bentgrass greens, and deep bunkers. There's little need for intricate tee-box strategy here—players who excel off the tee and are dialed in with their long irons will hold a distinct edge. Bombers and strong ball-strikers should be at the top of your watchlist.
MORE: Dimers' In-House Golf Rankings
The RBC Canadian Open Betting Preview
We're looking at the golfers that our model has identified with a higher probability to win than that implied by the sportsbook odds and without Scottie Scheffler soaking up 30+ percent of the market this week, there's a lot of value among our top contenders.
We'll also highlight some standout prop and placement bets if we find any appealing value when perusing the board.
Corey Conners (+2000 on DraftKings)
First up is local native Corey Conners, the top Canadian on the board at 6.8% to win and odds of +2000 with DraftKings Sportsbook.
Conners is having one of the best seasons of his career, finishing Top 20 in 8 of his 14 events, including a stretch of four Top 10s in five events.
He's still looking for his first win of the year and since 2023, but he's consistently contending at events and his profile lines up well for this week if he can compete with McIlroy.
Conners ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and while he's not the longest driver, his approach from over 200 yards is among the best, offsetting his shorter driving ability.
Dimers' fair odds for Conners would be just +1370 for some sweet value at +2000 on our second-most likely winner.
Shane Lowry (+2200 on DraftKings)
Shane Lowry is a DimersBOT favorite who's come through a few times this year but is looking for a bounceback after a poor final round at the Memorial.
Lowry has four finishes inside the Top 10 this year, including two runner-ups at Pebble Beach and the Truist Championship.
He ranks third on our board this week at 6.6% just a hair behind Conners for a slightly better value at +2200, while they should effectively have the same odds.
Overall, Lowry is ranked 49th Off the Tee, still well above field average, propped up by his 3rd-best approach and no one is better than Lowry between 200-225 yards out.
He features as our best ladder play this week:
- Top 5: 24.6% at +450
- Top 10: 38.6% at +230
- Top 20: 56.1% at +110
Sam Burns (+3000 on DraftKings)
Our top-ranked American in this event is our fourth-most likely winner as Sam Burns draws a 4.5% probability to win at TPC Toronto.
Burns has finished outside the Top 20 just once in his past five events, finishing as high as T5 at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, compared with one such finish in his previous nine event, way back in January.
He's entering this event in his best form, which he'll need, as his strength lies in his short game - he ranks first on the PGA TOUR in Strokes Gained: Putting.
Burns does rank 55th in Driving Distance which is more above the field average than it appears and 36th in total driving. If he can take advantage of the large fairways to counter some of his accuracy issues, he can make short work on the greens.
His fair odds would be +2100 per our model.
Alex Noren (+5500 on BetMGM)
Our final winner with value is Alex Noren, the Swedish veteran who's appeared in just three events this year after recovering from a hamstring injury and currently at odds of +5500 with BetMGM Sportsbook.
Still looking for his form, he did finish as high as T17 at the PGA Championship, in which he was right in the mix until a poor final round dropped him out of the Top 10.
He's not qualified for SG analysis with his minimal appearances this season, but last year ranked 12th in SG: Total, 43rd on Approach and 79th Off the Tee.
Our model is still high on him to break through this year, with his +5500 odds implying just a 1.8% probability compared to Dimers' 4.1% (fair odds of +2340. We'd recommend a smaller wager on him than the others, but he's worth a look with some Top 20 value as well.
2025 RBC Canadian Open Prop Bets
You can find more winners with value by digging in to our full RBC Canadian Open Predictions with Dimers Pro.
Plus, in addition to the outright winner picks with value, we've got a few placement and unique market bets to consider for this week's 2025 RBC Canadian Open as well. As well as being value plays as single wagers, consider playing these in a parlay to potentially rack up some serious profits.
Sam Burns Top American (+1200 on DraftKings)
Remember how Sam Burns is the top American finisher in our projections? That prop bet is +1200.
He has a 12.4% higher probability to finish Top 20 than Keith Mitchell, the next at +1800. He's a full 10% higher to finish Top 10.
A Top 5 finish is just +600 and with the best of the best USA golfers all sitting out this tournament, he may not even need to finish that high to cash this prop.
Shane Lowry/Corey Conners Top 20 (+330 on DraftKings)
We'll play a little two-leg parlay as our second prop bet. You know that both Shane Lowry and Corey Conners are among our top overall finishers, but they share a unique category.
Only Lowry and Conners are both over 50% to finish Top 20 and also plus-money odds (implying 50% or less). Lowry (+110) should be -125 while Conners should be -110.
Playing them together nets a +330 parlay.
Expert Golf Picks and Predictions for 2025 PGA TOUR
As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers also has the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.
- PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including every major.
- Head-to-Head Predictor: Simulate any H2H tournament matchup between golfers
- Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
- PGA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the PGA TOUR
Dimers and Responsible Gambling
Please remember to enjoy gambling responsibly. Responsible gambling means setting limits, staying in control, and understanding that luck is just part of the game. Make informed choices, set a budget, and know when to take a break. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.
To make sure you get accurate and helpful information, this guide has been edited by Nick Slade as part of our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
Advertiser disclosure
Swipe across to view more offers 
