World Cup Matchday 3: Which teams from Groups D, E and F can advance on Thursday, June 25?
Here's everything at stake as the final matchday of the World Cup group stage continues and what the Dimers model says about every scenario in the games on Thursday, June 25.
The World Cup group stage begins its final run of matches on Thursday, June 25 with Groups D, E and F each playing their third and final match of the round. With some teams already eliminated and others playing for first place in their group, there's plenty of World Cup betting action to get into.
After two weeks of matches seeing a daily lineup of two groups, eight teams and staggered kickoffs each day, we've moved to a six-game schedule featuring three groups, 12 teams and all four teams from within a group kicking off simultaneously, each match with the best World Cup bets, props and more.
Here is everything at stake when the final whistles blow across Groups D, E, and F as we look ahead to who will win the World Cup:
Group D: United States, Australia, Paraguay and Turkey
Standings:
1. United States - 6 Points (clinched)
2. Australia - 3 Points
3. Paraguay - 3 Points
4. Turkey - 0 Points (eliminated)
In Group D, the United States put together a dominant group stage performance and head into the final matchday as the only team in these three groups already through to the next round. The question now is who joins them.
MORE: See today's top-projected goalscorers
The final match is pointless far as the USA and Turkey are concerned. The USMNT were confirmed as group winners and Turkey confirmed in fourth and eliminated. If you're betting on this match today, be sure to consider the team motivations.
Australia and Paraguay are tied at three points, making their head-to-head clash the only thing that matters for second place. Australia advance with a win or a draw, while Paraguay must win outright to go through due to a negative goal differential.
What the data says about Group D
Paraguay gets the edge per our model, though fairly slim, at a 37.9% chance to win compared to 30.7% for Australia. However, the 31.4% chance of a draw looms large, as that only gets Australia through, putting Paraguay in a win or bust situation.
Goalscorers are in the mid-high teens, with Mohamed Toure at 17.1% the most likely for Australia and Gabriel Avalos at 17.6% for Paraguay., suggesting goals will be at a premium, pointing to a low-scoring affair, with Australia as live underdogs with a big edge at +325 odds and a 30.7% win probability.
In USA-Turkiye, the USMNY still holds a solid edge on the ML at 52.0% to 25.2% for Turkiye, but the data does point towards goals being scored, despite USA's clinch of first place, with a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Turkiye put up 62 shots without a goal, the most in World Cup history since 1966, so perhaps they're finally due.
Group E: Germany, Ivory Coast, Ecuador and Curaçao
Standings:
1. Germany - 6 Points (clinched)
2. Ivory Coast - 3 Points
3. Ecuador - 1 Point
4. Curaçao - 1 Point
Germany have already guaranteed they will finish top of Group E, with Ivory Coast sitting second on three points. The bottom two are level on one point each, but the picture is tight: Curaçao stay alive and need a win over Ivory Coast in their finale, while Ecuador must get a result against Germany to have a chance
Ivory Coast are in an enviable position as the only team with two paths to get in, as a win against Curaçao sends them through as runner-up outright while a draw is enough to advance as well, provided Germany doesn't suffer a historic collapse and lose to Ecuador by two goals or more. Ivory Coast hold the head-to-head advantage over Ecuador if both finish level with 4 points.
Ecuador's path is narrow but not impossible. They need to beat Germany by at least two goals and see Ivory Coast lose. Ecuador's goalless, winless start has left them in real danger
Curaçao's situation is the most challenging. They sit six goals behind Ecuador in goal differential, meaning even a win over Ivory Coast may not be enough unless they win big and Ecuador drops points.
What the data says about Group E
Ivory Coast are a 93.1% probability to win or draw, so it's not looking good for Curaçao. For betting value, the Under 3.5 is the play at a 61% probability and just -135 odds, also lined up with our BTTS: No at 57.8%.
Germany-Ecuador is less appealing for value, our lone edge is a 68% play on the under 3.5, but at heavy -190 juice. Safely locked into the 1st-place spot, it remains to be seen just how involved Germany's top stars get.
Group F: Japan, Netherlands, Sweden and Tunisia
Standings:
1. Japan - 4 Points
2. Netherlands - 4 Points
3. Sweden - 3 Points
4. Tunisia - 0 Points (eliminated)
Group F is the most wide open of the three. Japan and the Netherlands sit level on four points and identical goal differentials at the top, Sweden trails by just one point, while Tunisia have already been eliminated without a single point to their name.
The Matchday 3 Japan vs. Sweden clash now effectively decides the second knockout spot, while the Netherlands can seal top place. Japan advance with a win or draw against Sweden, with a win keeping their first place hopes alive.
The Netherlands' route is slightly more complex. They can clinch the group with a win over Tunisia combined with a Japan loss or draw. A draw of their own also gets them through, and even a loss leaves them in good shape for third-place advancement should Sweden beat Japan. Given that Tunisia are winless and have allowed 9 goals in their two matches so far, the Dutch are well positioned.
Sweden are the wild card, sitting just one point back and very much alive. A win over Japan puts them through as a top two finisher, and depending on how the Netherlands fare against Tunisia, could even see them claim top spot.
Tunisia enter as the group's only eliminated side, but don't expect the Netherlands to settle for anything less than a statement performance headed into the knockout rounds.
What the data says in Group F:
Netherlands control their destiny as 85.5% favorites against Tunisia, and should be going all-out to secure first place in the group. Everything points to a dominant game by the Oranje, with a 58% chance of BTTS: No, a 53% chance of Netherlands winning with a clean sheet and 3-0 our most likely final score at 12.5% and +500.
Japan get a slim advantage to win at 51% and nearly even money, but the betting value lies on Sweden as they push for a top two spot, with a 36% chance to win against +340 odds.
You can also get an edge on the over 2.5 goals, with a 2-1 Japan victory at 9.7% and +700 our most likely result aligned there.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
