WNBA MVP Race and Latest Odds: Caitlin Clark Climbing as Return Approaches

The WNBA MVP race took a dramatic turn when Indiana Fever star Caitlin Clark was sidelined with a left quad strain, forcing her to miss at least four games. But while the injury has temporarily slowed Clark's on-court dominance, her case for 2025 WNBA MVP is far from over. Since her injury, her odds to win MVP have gone on a bit of a ride.

Clark entered the season as both a cultural phenomenon, the driving force behind the Fever’s playoff push, and the WNBA MVP favorite at -115.

Now listed as short as +250 to win MVP at FanDuel Sportsbook, her odds have lengthened slightly behind Napheesa Collier (-230), but the race is still wide open — especially if Clark returns in the coming days as expected.

We'll analyze her season-to-date, the Dimers WNBA projections and the latest odds to gain some clarity in this race. The odds used will come from multiple sportsbook apps, so you'll be best served with multiple sportsbooks in your pocket.

Analyzing WNBA MVP Odds: The Case for Caitlin Clark (+400 at bet365)

Even in a league brimming with talent, few if any players match Clark’s all-around footprint. Before her injury, she had either scored or assisted on 150 of the Fever’s 352 total points, meaning 42.6% of all offensive production ran through her. And that’s before factoring in her team-best 1.3 steals per game and defensive presence.

Here's how her season averages rank in the league for key offensive and defensive categories, as well as Dimers' average projections for her prior to injury:

While some of those ranks may not seem like MVP material, consider her first overall assist ranking - the net closest player is 6.7 by Page Buckers. Clark is averaging nearly 3 assists per game more than anyone else in the WNBA - she doesn't just score, she facilitates her entire team's offense. For rebounds, all the players above her are Forwards and Centers - she's the top-ranked Guard. Similarly, she's the third-ranked Guard in block, another category that caters more to bigs. She's outperforming our model's expected output in boards and assists as well.

Since Clark’s injury, the Fever have looked like a shell of themselves. In their first game without her, Indiana failed to cover as favorites against the Mystics, falling short despite expectations.

Our model had given them a 54-56% chance to cover in previous games, but that plummeted to just 37% in their second game without Clark vs. the Connecticut Sun — a winless, last-place team that still managed to beat Indiana.

The Fever did manage to bounce back with a win over those same Mystics in their third game without Clark, but her absence has exposed how dependent this team is on her playmaking, scoring, and leadership. When one player’s presence swings not just game outcomes but betting markets — that’s an MVP-level impact and if anything, strengthens Clark's case.

What Clark has accomplished entering her second season is almost unprecedented. She’s led a bottom-tier franchise into playoff contention, elevated the entire team’s offensive identity, and brought national attention to every game she plays. Statistically and narratively, she still checks every MVP box even while sidelined.

The Other Contenders

Napheesa Collier (-230 at FanDuel)

As Clark sits on the sideline, Napheesa Collier has emerged as the clear frontrunner for the 2025 WNBA MVP, leading the Minnesota Lynx to a perfect 8-0 start — their best since the 2017 championship season.

After finishing as last year's runner-up, Collier is doing it all, averaging a league-best 25.1 points per game to go with 7.8 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 2.4 steals, and 1.4 blocks. Her dominant May earned her both Western Conference Player of the Week and Player of the Month honors and simply put, she’s carrying the Lynx on both ends of the floor.

This breakout scoring season is just the latest chapter in Collier’s decorated career. A year after winning Defensive Player of the Year and guiding Minnesota to a Game 5 overtime loss in the WNBA Finals, Collier has returned with a vengeance — exceeding even the most optimistic projections with the Dimers model projecting her for an average of 19.8 points, 8.1 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game. She’s anchoring the league’s most complete team while consistently delivering MVP-caliber performances night after night, and she’s doing it without the benefit of a superteam around her.

At -230 odds on FanDuel, Collier has taken firm control of the MVP race, with Caitlin Clark (+250) and A’ja Wilson (+1200) trailing behind.

She will have a few games in had over Caitlin Clark which could give her a bit more of an advantage, but again - we're not making the case against Collier, just the reason why Clark's value is unlikely to be at this point again.

Everyone Else

After the leaders, there's a big drop off in the odds. You have two-time MVP A'Ja Wilson at +700 (as long as +1200 at FanDuel), Breanna Stewart of the Liberty at +3500 and Kelsey Plum of the Sparks at +8000 before everyone enters 100/1 territory or longer.

Here's a quick look at the players down the board:

• A'Ja Wilson (+1200)
• Breanna Stewart (+3500)
• Kelsey Plum (+8000)
• Satou Sabally (+10000)
• Sabrina Ionescu (+10000)
• Skylar Diggins-Smith (+15000)

Takeaway: Clark Has Ground to Cover But Will Only Get Closer When She Returns

The Caitlin Clark MVP campaign has hit a minor speed bump but if you had an early ticket, it's far from a loser. With a return on the horizon and her statistical dominance already established, Clark’s case remains one of the most compelling in the league as her absence has even hammered home her value to the team.

If she picks up where she left off, it won’t just be the Fever climbing the standings — it’ll be Clark climbing back to the top of the MVP race in no time.

It's unlikely she'll be as far out as +400 once she returns to the court - even if she doesn't win in the end, the only way to get a price like this on Caitlin Clark to win MVP is due to an injury so we say jump on it while you can. And if you can apply a sportsbook promo like a bet365 bonus code boost, you can get even better odds.

Caitlin Clark to Win WNBA MVP

+400

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