WNBA first basket predictions for Thursday include Napheesa Collier, Paige Bueckers [7/3/2025]

Updated: Jul 3, 2025, 12:16 PM ET | First published: Jul 3, 2025, 12:38 AM ET

Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer

Our expert analysis on Thursday's WNBA first basket market.

WNBA First Basket Predictions Today. — The most likely WNBA first basket scorers for Thursday have been revealed.

This Thursday, July 3rd, it's time for an action-packed day of WNBA action, headlined by the Sparks' matchup against the Liberty at 7:00PM ET.

After reviewing Thursday's WNBA simulation results this morning (see Dimers Pro for full access), our data analysts have produced their best first basket bet of the day.

Additionally, this article reveals the WNBA players our predictive analytics model has selected as having the highest probability of scoring the first basket in their respective matchups on Thursday.

Let's dive into today's WNBA first basket news and updates.

WNBA Players to Watch Today

Based on the most recent injury reports, Thursday's WNBA games are expected to feature big names such as Napheesa Collier, Paige Bueckers and Breanna Stewart, each with a high probability of opening the scoring when they take to the court.

Who Will Score the First Basket Tonight? [WNBA Cheat Sheet for July 3, 2025]

According to our data-driven analysis, the most likely WNBA player to score the first basket across all of today's matchups is Napheesa Collier, with a probability of 15.7%.

Thanks to simulating Thursday's WNBA games 10,000 times each, Dimers has determined the list of players most likely to score the first basket in their respective games.

Player (Team)	First Basket Probability
Napheesa Collier (Lynx)	15.7%
Paige Bueckers (Wings)	14.8%
Breanna Stewart (Liberty)	14.7%
Shakira Austin (Mystics)	14.1%
Kelsey Mitchell (Fever)	13.7%
A'ja Wilson (Aces)	13.6%
Nneka Ogwumike (Storm)	13.4%
Sabrina Ionescu (Liberty)	12.8%
Dearica Hamby (Sparks)	12.7%
Aliyah Boston (Fever)	12.6%

Following Collier closely, the players with the next highest likelihood of scoring the first basket today are Paige Bueckers at 14.8% and Breanna Stewart at 14.7%.

Paige Bueckers of the Dallas Wings. — Paige Bueckers is among the top contenders in the WNBA to score the first basket on Thursday, July 3, 2025.

Dimers Pro Pick of the Day: WNBA First Basket [7/3/2025]

After simulating the outcome of today's WNBA matchups 10K times each, our leading predictive analytics model has discovered the best WNBA first basket betting pick for Thursday.

For full access to our comprehensive analysis and top picks, subscribe to Dimers Pro.

Erica Wheeler To Score First Basket

Odds: +1700
Edge: 4.1%
Probability: 9.7%
Game: Storm vs. Dream (7:30PM ET)

Our model has identified the best WNBA first basket bet for Thursday's WNBA slate in the game between the Storm and Dream. The bet is on Erica Wheeler (SEA) at odds of +1700 with FanDuel Sportsbook, with an edge of 4.1% according to our analysis.

Although Wheeler doesn't feature in our model's top 10 most likely first basket scorers for Thursday's WNBA slate, she does present the best betting opportunity for those aiming to gain an edge on the market.

Closer Look at Today's First Basket Props

WNBA first basket props have become one of the more popular betting options for basketball bettors. By using Thursday's data-driven WNBA predictions, you can gain an advantage over everyone else.

For today's full list of WNBA prop picks, join Dimers Pro. We give you the tools and information to succeed with hundreds of data-driven bets across thousands of games. Sign up now to join the community!

WNBA News, Schedule Alerts and Updated Odds

WNBA Schedule for Today [7/3/2025]

Sparks vs. Liberty (7:00PM ET, Thursday)
Aces vs. Fever (7:00PM ET, Thursday)
Storm vs. Dream (7:30PM ET, Thursday)
Mystics vs. Lynx (8:00PM ET, Thursday)

Today's WNBA First Basket Picks: July 3, 2025

This WNBA first basket article has been partially generated using automated processes and AI technology. Our goal is to provide timely and accurate updates on WNBA first basket picks for July 3, 2025. Automation assists in data collection, analysis, and formatting, while human editing and quality control ensure the content meets our editorial guidelines.

All of Dimers' WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, July 3, are generated thanks to rigorous data-driven game simulations, providing reliable and accurate WNBA predictions to help you make informed decisions.

If you use today's WNBA first basket predictions for sports betting, it's crucial that you gamble responsibly and manage your bankroll effectively. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.

Note: Clicking links to our sportsbook partners may earn us a referral fee.

Learn about how we review products and services.

Understanding Betting Edge

The "edge" at Dimers is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that Dimers believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the sportsbooks do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.

Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.

More on WNBA

This article is part of our WNBA player props and WNBA best bets series.

For more WNBA betting content, we have WNBA trends for every game, as well as daily WNBA betting news and the latest WNBA title odds and predictions.

Written by

Nick Slade

Chief Content Officer

Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.

Advertiser disclosure