Why You Should Not Bet on Novak Djokovic at the 2022 U.S. Open 

Fresh off his seventh Wimbledon title, nearly every major sportsbook shows Novak Djokovic as an overwhelming favorite to win the 2022 U.S. Open this September in New York. This is extraordinary, given that unless something changes, U.S. law will prohibit Djokovic, who is unvaccinated from COVID-19, from setting foot on U.S. soil, even as the tournament he’s favored to win takes place.

Dimers.com contributor Mac Douglass explains what needs to change for Djokovic to play in this year’s U.S. Open, and breaks down how tennis bettors can beat the odds, simply by following the news. 

History 

We’ll pick up in January, 2022 at the Australian Open. With 20 majors a piece, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, and Roger Federer were deadlocked. Djokovic was in superior form, coming off a three-slam 2021, a clear favorite to break the tie with his 21st major in Melbourne. 

But no. Djokovic arrived in Australia, having been granted an exemption to skirt the national vaccination requirement. When the Australian public became aware, there was outcry. Djokovic’s exemption was revoked. He was deported, which was worse than it sounds, Australian law forbids such a person from re-entering the country for three years. 

NEW: John McEnroe on Biden not allowing unvaccinated Djokovic into America to play in the US Open: "These politicians are getting in the way too much. They did it in Australia. Let's let the guy come in and play in the U.S. I mean, c'mon, this is ridiculous!"

— Paul Sperry (@PaulSperry30) July 10, 2022

This blow was exacerbated when Nadal won the Australian Open, then the French Open, giving the Spaniard a two-major edge. 

Djokovic will be 39 by the time he’s allowed back in Australia. To retire as tennis’ Grand Slam King, he’ll need to catch and surpass Nadal, who will presumably be competing in all four yearly majors, compared to Djokovic’s two, maybe three.

The U.S. Open Tennis Favorite

The U.S. Open is that maybe. Djokovic is the current favorite, and highly motivated to compete. His +150 odds in a field of 128 reflect bookmakers’ confidence in his hard court dominance. Those odds do not, however, reflect the political reality that Djokovic’s unvaccinated status will likely bar him from traveling to the United States this September, much less hoisting the trophy in Queens. 

What needs to happen for Djokovic to play at the US Open? 

The U.S. government currently bans all foreigners unvaccinated against COVID-19. There are three conceivable paths to Djokovic competing in this year’s US Open. 

• Djokovic could get vaccinated. But he won’t. There’s all sorts of history to unpack, but the essence is that Djokovic is deeply opposed to vaccines because of his Greek Orthodox faith, and the horrific, Cold War history of Soviet vaccination programs in Serbia. Djokovic is one of the greatest competitors in sports history, but there’s no reason to believe he’ll get vaccinated just to play the U.S. Open. He didn’t for the Australian, and recently made it clear he has no plans to change his mind. 

• The US Government could grant an exemption. Again, don’t hold your breath. There is no precedent for the American government exempting an athlete from a required COVID vaccination, nor any chatter of an exception. 

• The US Government could lift the vaccination requirement. This probably will happen, but after this year’s Open. With the rise of the BA.5 COVID variant, the CDC has reiterated the importance of vaccines, and federal policy has closely reflected CDC guidance. COVID cases are on the rise again, and the U.S. Open is only two months away, shutting out any cause for optimism of a speedy-enough change.  

New Deadspin Post: Novak Djokovic is stopping Novak Djokovic from playing in the U.S. Open https://t.co/Hc2IGIePKe

— Sprout Max (@max_sprout) July 15, 2022

Who to bet on at the U.S. Open tennis?

Bet on Daniil Medvedev.

Full disclosure: I’m a Djoker fanatic, and desperately hope he’ll play. But the smart money is on Medvedev.

Not only is the Russian the world number one, he’s the defending U.S. Open champ, having (easily) handled Djokovic in the 2021 final. Further, Medvedev has always performed in Queens, whereas Djokovic, despite historical dominance on hard courts, has found less success in New York than London or Melbourne.

Hard work mode - activated ✅@DaniilMedwed pic.twitter.com/v9nwcGswvV

— Meddy Family (@dmedvedevfans) July 15, 2022

Medvedev’s current odds to win in Flushing Meadows sit at +200, with Djokovic in the field. If and when it’s made official Djokovic won’t compete, Medvedev will become a massive favorite. Bettors will kick themselves for passing on him at +200. 

So bet Medvedev, bet somebody else, or don’t bet at all. But don’t bet Djokovic. 

Do follow the news. Djokovic’s +150 odds make clear American oddsmakers aren’t in tune with pandemic politics. If you are, there’s money to be made.