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Valero Texas Open predictions: Golf picks and best bets
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
The 2026 PGA TOUR heads stays in Texas for the Valero Texas Open as the final event before the 2026 Masters and we've got our best bets from the Dimers model.
The Dimers golf predictions and best golf bets are back for the Valero Texas Open, teeing off on Thursday, March 25 at Memorial Park Golf course in Houston, TX. After we correctly identified Cameron Young to win THE PLAYERS, and Matt Fitzpatrick to win the Valspar Championship in recent weeks, we've got the latest best golf bets to make at the least event before the 2026 Masters.
There's already no shortage of drama, with Collin Morikawa an early withdrawal after planning to make his first start since he was a W/D after just his first hole at THE PLAYERS three weeks ago.
TPC San Antonio's Oaks Course winds through the Cibolo Canyons just north of San Antonio, and it has earned a reputation as one of the sterner tests on the PGA Tour. Dense brush and oak trees frame fairways that demand precision off the tee, while elevated greens with tricky pin positions place a premium on dialed-in approach play. The rough has grown almost a full inch, tightening the margin for error.
The cold and wind often come into play thanks to Mother Nature and were defining characteristics of a brutal final round in 2025. This year's forecast resembles last year's, with breezes expected to challenge players even before the cut and Sunday looks to be cold, windy and potentially rainy, with precipitation expected at multiple times throughout the week.
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A field of 132 players tees it up with one more Augusta invitation is on the line and the winner of the Valero earns the final spot at the Masters.
Eight of the top 20 in the world rankings are in the field following a withdrawal by Morikawa, making for a competitive pool with serious stakes at the top of the leaderboard.
Given the course's demands, the statistics that will separate contenders from pretenders are expected to be approach and scrambling play, as well as par-5 scoring and bogey avoidance, all of which point to a grinder's week in South Texas, where surviving the conditions may matter as much as making birdies.
PGA Valero Texas Open tournament preview
- Date: April 2-5, 2026
- Location: San Antonio, TX
- Course: TPC San Antonio, Oaks Course
- Par: 72 / 7,438 yards
- Purse: $9.8 million
- 2025 winner: Brian Harman (-9)
Based on data from the Dimers golf model, below are the five most likely winners of the Valero Texas Open this week.
Our win predictions are the result of simulating the tournament over 10,000 times via our AI models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5, 10 and 20:
| Golfer | Win% | Top 5% | Top 10% | Top 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Tommy Fleetwood | 12.2% | 36.9% | 52.6% | 69.6% |
| 2. Russell Henley | 9.4% | 30.2% | 44.4% | 61.4% |
| 3. Ludvig Aberg | 6.5% | 23.4% | 37.5% | 55.8% |
| 4. Robert MacIntyre | 6.2% | 23.2% | 37.4% | 55.0% |
| 5. Hideki Matsuyama | 5.3% | 20.3% | 33.2% | 52.7% |
Who will win the Valero Texas Houston Open?
For each tournament, we look at the golfers our model has identified with a higher probability to win than what is implied by the sportsbook odds.
We'll also highlight any standout prop and placement bets for other golfers if we find any appealing value hidden in the Dimers golf predictions.
To get the most out of this week's PGA TOUR event, check out Dimers' full tournament predictions and compare with course history and other analytics to find an edge.
Russell Henley to win (boosted to +1800 on bet365)
Win probability: 9.4%
Dimers' fair odds: +960
Henley is one of the best value plays in the field this week, a player whose underlying numbers consistently outperform his lack of hype.
His nearly 10% probability to win is the second-best of the week and gives us fair odds short of +1000, well below his standard and boosted price at bet365.
His Bogey Avoidance of 10.19% ranks ninth on TOUR, a critical stat at a course that punishes mistakes relentlessly. He also ranks 18th in SG: Approach this season and the Oaks Course rewards that profile historically. His 2026 finishes T19, T8, T19, CUT, T6, T13 are wildly consistent save for the cut and point to a layer on the verge of another win.
Henley finished fourth here last season and he makes for a great ladder play with Top 20 odds at plus money but over a 60% probability to do so.
Our boosted odds on Russell Henley to win at bet365, odds subject to change.
Tommy Fleetwood to win (+1500 on FanDuel)
Win probability: 12.2%
Dimers' fair odds: +720 and above
Fleetwood enters San Antonio as the Dimers model favorite and arguably the most well-rounded player in the field for this specific test.
He is one of just eight players in the field who rank above average in at least four key stat categories for this course: SG: Approach, Par-4 Scoring, Bogey Avoidance, and Good Drives Gained.
His putting has been a slight concern of late, which could limit his ceiling, but with Dimers pricing him nearly half the odds we can get on the books, the market appears to be offering genuine value on a player who checks nearly every box for this venue.
He's bagged three Top 10s in four tries this year, and has a T7 and T62 in two past appearances at this event.
Robert MacIntrye to win (+1900 on bet365)
Win probability: 6.2%
Dimers' fair odds: +1515 and above
MacIntyre arrives with an intriguing statistical profile that cuts both ways at TPC San Antonio.
He ranks 17th on Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee this season and his accuracy is a good sign for these critical fairways. The concern is his approach play, where he ranks just 148th on TOUR in SG: Approach, a worrying number at a course where iron play is the primary separator.
On the flipside, it's one of his few deficiencies and he has the tools, like the third-ranked scrambling this season, to offset that factor.
6.2% isn't a big win probability, but he still lands Top 5 overall with a clear edge at +1900 odds, and a respectable T35 in his lone try here back in 2022.
Alex Noren to win (+3800 on DraftKings)
Win probability: 2.9%
Dimers' fair odds: +3350 and above
The 43-year-old Swede is the type of player whose numbers suggest more than his results have shown.
His underlying statistics have shown him to be a much better golfer than his two top-25 finishes this season would suggest, and he has performed well in past Valero appearances with a T15 in 2023 and a T14 in 2024, and his Top 40 driving accuracy should be a big help here, even if he's not known for power.
Since two missed cuts to start the year, he's been very consistent in the Top 20-30 range, looking for the event to break out for his first PGA TOUR win.
At +3800 with Dimers' fair line sitting at +3350, Noren is a solid course fit who could find himself in Sunday contention if the iron play holds up.
Valero Texas Open longshot bets
Beyond the Dimers model favorites, several golfers have an edge at odds of more than 50/1, setting up longshot bets for outright wins or Top 20 placements at good plus-money value.
Patrick Rodgers to win (+11000 on bet365)
Win probability: 1.1%
Dimers' fair odds: +8990
Rodgers has never broken through for a victory in over a decade on TOUR, but he's flashed plenty of upside this year until his missed cut last week.
He opened the year with a solo third and turned in a T11 at THE PLAYERS, which is no easy task.
In his ten years on Tour, Rodgers has just four top-3 finishes, but has accumulated a steady stream of top-10s and top-25s, 21 total for the latter over his previous two years.
His results here are not great, with three missed cuts, two top 60s and a withdrawal, but he did break through for a solo 5th back in 2023.
He has a well-rounded game and if not for his accuracy concerns off the tee, has fewer blemishes to his game than you'd expect for a player at 110/1 odds, and even a Top 30 or Top 20 would come with an edge on the veteran.
Dimers' golf resources for 2026 PGA TOUR
As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers Pros also have access to the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.
- PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including every major.
- Head-to-Head Predictor: Simulate any H2H tournament matchup between golfers
- Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
- PGA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the PGA TOUR
The Dimers Pro golf predictions ended last season on an elite run, headlined by Tommy Fleetwood's first win at the TOUR Championship.
This season, we've accurately identified the live value on Justin Rose to win the Farmers Insurance Open at +500 and big edges on Tommy Fleetwood at Pebble Beach and our boosted pick of Cameron Young to win THE PLAYERS as standout winners of the year.
Dimers and responsible gambling
Please remember to enjoy gambling responsibly. Responsible gambling means setting limits, staying in control, and understanding that luck is just part of the game. Make informed choices, set a budget, and know when to take a break. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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