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Blue Jays vs. Rays prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Monday's MLB matchup [5/4/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays predictions for MLB Monday.
MLB action continues on Monday at 6:40 PM ET as the Toronto Blue Jays take on the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field.
The Rays will have Nick Martinez (2-1, 1.70 ERA) as their starting pitcher, up against Eric Lauer (1-3, 6.00 ERA) for the Blue Jays.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Rays a slight edge with a 53% win probability over the Blue Jays.
This article offers a closer look at Monday's Blue Jays vs. Rays matchup, including best bets and picks.
Blue Jays vs. Rays prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Monday's MLB matchup between the Blue Jays and Rays, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Rays a 53% chance of beating the Blue Jays.
According to our model, the Blue Jays (+1.5) have a 65% chance of covering the run line, while the 8-run over/under has a 54% chance of going over.
Blue Jays vs. Rays odds [5/4/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Blue Jays | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-199) | -1.5 (+172) |
| Moneyline | +109 | -125 |
| Total | o8 (-110) | u8 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Blue Jays vs. Rays picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Rays -1.5 | +172 |
| Moneyline | Blue Jays | +109 |
| Total | Over 8 | -110 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Blue Jays vs. Rays game-day updates and essential details
Monday's MLB matchup between the Rays and Blue Jays at Tropicana Field is scheduled to commence at 6:40 PM ET.
- Who: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays
- Date: Monday, May 4, 2026
- Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40PM PT
- Venue: Tropicana Field
Conclusion
We predict the Rays, with a 53% win probability, will likely beat the Blue Jays in Monday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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