St Louis City vs. Sporting Kansas City prediction, odds, MLS picks [7/16/2026]
Get St Louis City vs Sporting Kansas City predictions for MLS Thursday.
St Louis City will face Sporting KC in MLS action at CITYPARK on Thursday, commencing at 8:30 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven MLS model projects St Louis City as the most likely winner of the St Louis City vs. Sporting KC game.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.
St Louis City vs. Sporting Kansas City prediction: Who will win?
Our independent predictive model currently indicates a 66.5% chance of St Louis City winning, a 15.4% chance for Sporting KC, and an 18.2% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 66.6% chance of going over, according to our model.
St Louis City vs. Sporting Kansas City odds
We have researched the best MLS odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| St Louis City | Sporting KC | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| -220 | +575 | +425 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -250 | +188 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
St Louis City vs. Sporting Kansas City picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Moneyline: Sporting KC @ +575 via DraftKings
- Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +188 via Bet365
According to our MLS best bets, the top play to make on this game is Sporting KC to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
St Louis City vs. Sporting Kansas City: Correct score predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 2-1 St Louis City win being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| STL 2-1 SKC | 9.6% |
| STL 2-0 SKC | 9.1% |
| STL 1-1 SKC | 8.1% |
St Louis City vs. Sporting Kansas City game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's game between St Louis City and Sporting KC in MLS at CITYPARK is scheduled to start at 8:30 PM ET.
- Who: St Louis City vs. Sporting Kansas City
- Date: Thursday, July 16, 2026
- Time: 8:30 PM ET/5:30PM PT
- Venue: CITYPARK
Conclusion
According to our computer model, St Louis City has a 66.5% win probability on Thursday, Sporting KC has a 15.4% win probability, and there is an 18.2% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
