Sporting KC vs. St Louis City Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Sporting KC vs. St Louis City MLS match on July 16, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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MLS
Sporting KC
2
3
CITYPARK
St Louis City
CITYPARK
St Louis CitySTL
Score Summary
Sporting KCSKC
S. Jeong (28')
Soccer ball icon
M. Hartel (36')
Soccer ball icon
E. Lowen (pen.) (86')
Soccer ball icon
Capita (42')
Soccer ball icon
D. Joveljic (76')
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Live Probabilities
Win %
  • St Louis City
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Sporting KC
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Yellow Card
    B. Lundt (St. Louis City) cautioned
  2. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for St. Louis City: P. Ault replaces S. Becher
  3. 90'
    Yellow Card
    D. Edelman (St. Louis City) cautioned
  4. 88'
    Substitution
    Substitution for St. Louis City: T. Ostrak replaces E. Lowen
  5. 88'
    Substitution
    Substitution for St. Louis City: J. Orozco replaces T. Totland
  6. 86'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for St. Louis City by E. Lowen (pen.)
    2-3
  7. 85'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Sporting Kansas City: S. Afrifa replaces Capita
  8. 78'
    Yellow Card
    Capita (Sporting Kansas City) cautioned
  9. 76'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Sporting Kansas City: K. Agyabeng replaces Z. Bassong
  10. 76'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Sporting Kansas City by D. Joveljic, assisted by M. Garcia
    2-2
  11. 75'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Sporting Kansas City: E. Bartlow replaces O. Blorian
  12. 64'
    Substitution
    Substitution for St. Louis City: M. Perez replaces S. Jeong
  13. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Sporting Kansas City: J. Davis replaces I. James
  14. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for St. Louis City: Rafael Santos replaces C. Wallem
  15. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Sporting Kansas City: E. Karic replaces J. Reid
  16. 42'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Sporting Kansas City by Capita
    1-2
  17. 36'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for St. Louis City by M. Hartel, assisted by S. Becher
    0-2
  18. 28'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for St. Louis City by S. Jeong
    0-1

Sporting KC vs. St Louis City: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Sporting KC vs. St Louis City
  • Date: Thursday, July 16, 2026
  • Time: 8:30 PM ET
  • Venue: CITYPARK

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Sporting KC +575, St Louis City -200, draw +425
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-275/+210)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Sporting KC: 15.4%
  • St Louis City: 66.5%
  • Draw: 18.2%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' MLS data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Sporting KC 1-2 St Louis City (9.6%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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Who will win Sporting KC vs. St Louis City? Prediction & correct score

St Louis City is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 66.5%.

The most likely correct score is Sporting KC 1-2 St Louis City.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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