FC Cincinnati vs. D.C. United prediction, odds, MLS Cup Wildcard Round picks [10/21/2026]

Cincinnati and D.C. United will meet in the MLS Cup Wildcard Round at TQL Stadium on Wednesday, with kickoff at 7:00 PM ET.

Dimers' advanced MLS model projects Cincinnati as the most likely winner in this Cincinnati vs. D.C. United prediction.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Wednesday's match, including best bets and picks.

FC Cincinnati vs. D.C. United prediction and odds

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Wednesday's MLS game between Cincinnati and D.C. United, forming part of our MLS predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model suggests a 62.6% chance of Cincinnati winning, a 19.8% chance for D.C. United, and a 17.6% chance of a draw. Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 78.2% chance of going over., according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best MLS odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: D.C. United +335, Cincinnati -144
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-335/+317)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet for MLS Cup Wildcard Round

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Cincinnati @ -144 via Novig
• Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ -335 via Polymarket

According to our best MLS bets, the top play to make on this game is Cincinnati to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score projections

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 2-1 Cincinnati win being the most probable:

• Cincinnati 2-1 D.C. United (8.3% probability)
• Cincinnati 3-1 D.C. United (7.4%)
• Cincinnati 1-1 D.C. United (6.3%)

Game info & kickoff details

Wednesday's MLS action between Cincinnati and D.C. United in MLS at TQL Stadium is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: FC Cincinnati vs. D.C. United
• Date: Wednesday, October 21, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00 PM PT
• Venue: TQL Stadium

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Cincinnati has a 62.6% win probability on Wednesday, D.C. United has a 19.8% win probability, and there is a 17.6% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLS prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.