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Read Article Storm vs. Sun prediction: Why Connecticut is favored to win Sunday's WNBA matchup [5/10/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Seattle Storm vs Connecticut Sun predictions for WNBA Sunday.
The Connecticut Sun and Seattle Storm will lock horns in the WNBA at Mohegan Sun Arena on Sunday, with tipoff at 1:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model projects the Sun as the most likely winner of the Storm vs. Sun game.
The Sun, with stars like Brittney Griner, Aneesah Morrow and Saniya Rivers, will face off against the Storm, who feature Dominique Malonga, Natisha Hiedeman and Flau'jae Johnson.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Storm vs. Sun prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's WNBA matchup between the Storm and Sun, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Sun a 64% chance of beating the Storm.
According to our model, the Sun (-1.5) have a 59% chance of covering the spread, while the 163.5-point over/under has a 55% chance of going over.
Storm vs. Sun odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Storm | Sun |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +1.5 (-110) | -1.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +106 | -120 |
| Total | o163.5 (-114) | u163.5 (-106) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Storm vs. Sun picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sun -1.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Sun | -120 |
| Total | Over 163.5 | -114 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Sun to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Storm vs. Sun player props
Betting on Storm vs. Sun WNBA player props? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mohegan Sun Arena.
Dominique Malonga is expected to lead the Storm with 18 points, 10 rebounds and 2 assists, while Brittney Griner is projected to have 15 points, 7 rebounds and 2 assists for the Sun.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's WNBA first basket picks.
Storm prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Storm are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Malonga | 18 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 40 |
| N. Hiedeman | 14 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 30 |
| F. Johnson | 12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 23 |
| Jordan Horston | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 22 |
| Stefanie Dolson | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 19 |
Sun prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Sun:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittney Griner | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 31 |
| Aneesah Morrow | 14 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 36 |
| Saniya Rivers | 10 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 28 |
| O. Nelson-Ododa | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 18 |
| Diamond Miller | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
Storm vs. Sun game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's matchup between the Sun and Storm at Mohegan Sun Arena is scheduled to start at 1:00 PM ET.
- Who: Seattle Storm vs. Connecticut Sun
- Date: Sunday, May 10, 2026
- Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
- Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Sun, with a 64% win probability, will likely beat the Storm in Sunday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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