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WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, May 10, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 5/10.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, May 10, 2026—are live with the Suns' A'ja Wilson projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Wilson, Kahleah Copper and Brittney Griner lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also feature tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (May 10, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| A'ja Wilson (Aces) | 16.7% |
| Kahleah Copper (Mercury) | 16.2% |
| Brittney Griner (Sun) | 16.1% |
| Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) | 15.8% |
| Breanna Stewart (Liberty) | 15.3% |
| Dominique Malonga (Storm) | 14.9% |
| Dearica Hamby (Sparks) | 13.8% |
| Natisha Hiedeman (Storm) | 13.1% |
| Jackie Young (Aces) | 12.2% |
| Kiki Iriafen (Mystics) | 12.1% |
| Lauren Betts (Mystics) | 12.0% |
| Nneka Ogwumike (Sparks) | 11.3% |
| Shakira Austin (Mystics) | 11.2% |
| Janelle Salaun (Valkyries) | 11.0% |
| Kaila Charles (Valkyries) | 10.7% |
| Kayla Thornton (Valkyries) | 10.4% |
| Jordan Horston (Storm) | 9.7% |
| Aneesah Morrow (Sun) | 9.7% |
| DeWanna Bonner (Mercury) | 9.7% |
| Saniya Rivers (Sun) | 9.6% |
| Rebekah Gardner (Liberty) | 9.4% |
| Veronica Burton (Valkyries) | 9.1% |
| Sonia Citron (Mystics) | 9.1% |
| Gabby Williams (Valkyries) | 8.9% |
| Diamond Miller (Sun) | 8.7% |
| Jonquel Jones (Liberty) | 8.7% |
| Kelsey Plum (Sparks) | 8.6% |
| Marine Johannes (Liberty) | 8.5% |
| Ariel Atkins (Sparks) | 8.5% |
| Natasha Mack (Mercury) | 8.3% |
| NaLyssa Smith (Aces) | 8.1% |
| Betnijah Laney (Liberty) | 8.1% |
| Cameron Brink (Sparks) | 7.8% |
| Chelsea Gray (Aces) | 7.3% |
| Stefanie Dolson (Storm) | 6.3% |
| Mackenzie Holmes (Storm) | 6.0% |
| Kennedy Burke (Sun) | 5.9% |
| Jewell Loyd (Aces) | 5.7% |
| Georgia Amoore (Mystics) | 5.5% |
WNBA first basket picks today (May 10, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natisha Hiedeman | Storm | 4.7% | +1100 | 13.1% |
| Ariel Atkins | Sparks | 1.3% | +1300 | 8.5% |
| Saniya Rivers | Sun | 1.2% | +1100 | 9.6% |
| Alyssa Thomas | Mercury | 0.4% | +550 | 15.8% |
| Jackie Young | Aces | 0.4% | +750 | 12.2% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 5/10.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Sunday, May 10, 2026, A'ja Wilson, Kahleah Copper and Brittney Griner lead our first basket projections, while Natisha Hiedeman shapes as the strongest value play at +1100. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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