Lynx vs. Mercury prediction: Why Minnesota is favored to win Monday's WNBA matchup [6/1/2026]

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's WNBA game between the Lynx and Mercury, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Lynx a 65% chance of beating the Mercury.

According to our model, the Lynx (-3.5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the 165.5-point over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

Lynx vs. Mercury odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Lynx	Mercury
Spread	-3.5 (-105)	+3.5 (-112)
Moneyline	-158	+136
Total	o165.5 (-120)	u165.5 (+100)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Lynx vs. Mercury picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Lynx -3.5	-105
Moneyline	Lynx	-158
Total	Under 165.5	+100

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Lynx to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Lynx vs. Mercury player props

Betting on Lynx vs. Mercury WNBA prop bets? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.

Kayla McBride is expected to lead the Lynx with 16 points, 3 rebounds and 3 assists, while Kahleah Copper is projected to have 18 points, 3 rebounds and 2 assists for the Mercury.

Shifting focus to the first basket market, our projections highlight Natasha Howard as the most likely player to open the scoring.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Lynx prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Lynx are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kayla McBride	16	3	3	3	30
C. Williams	16	5	6	2	38
Olivia Miles	14	5	5	1	33
Natasha Howard	13	8	2	0	31
Nia Coffey	9	6	2	2	23

Mercury prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kahleah Copper	18	3	2	2	29
Alyssa Thomas	16	10	10	0	48
Jovana Nogic	10	1	1	2	15
M. Akoa-Makani	9	3	3	1	21
DeWanna Bonner	9	5	1	1	20

Lynx vs. Mercury game-day updates and essential details

Monday's action between the Mercury and Lynx at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to start at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury
• Date: Monday, June 1, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center

Conclusion

We predict the Lynx, with a 65% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Monday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.