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Spurs vs. Thunder prediction: Oklahoma City favored to win Thursday's NBA matchup [12/25/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder predictions for NBA Thursday.
The Oklahoma City Thunder will face the San Antonio Spurs in NBA action at Paycom Center on Christmas Day, beginning at 2:30 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results and today’s injury reports, Dimers' proven NBA model predicts the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Spurs vs. Thunder game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Thunder lineup will feature players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, while the Spurs will rely on Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Spurs vs. Thunder prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NBA matchup between the Spurs and Thunder 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Thunder a 77% chance of beating the Spurs. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 121-112.
According to our model, the Spurs (+9.5) have a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the 234.5-point over/under has a 52% chance of staying under.
Spurs vs. Thunder odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Spurs | Thunder |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +9.5 (-105) | -9.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +290 | -350 |
| Total | o234.5 (-106) | u234.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Spurs vs. Thunder picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Spurs +9.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Thunder | -350 |
| Total | Under 234.5 | -110 |
According to our NBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Spurs +9.5 at the spread.
Spurs vs. Thunder player props
Betting on San Antonio vs. Oklahoma City NBA prop bets? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Paycom Center.
Victor Wembanyama is expected to lead the Spurs with 18 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected to have 31 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists for the Thunder.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Spurs prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Spurs are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Wembanyama | 18 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 42 |
| De'Aaron Fox | 18 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 36 |
| Stephon Castle | 17 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 38 |
| Devin Vassell | 15 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 29 |
| Harrison Barnes | 11 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 21 |
Thunder prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Thunder:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Gilgeous-Alexander | 31 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 55 |
| Jalen Williams | 20 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 40 |
| Chet Holmgren | 16 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 33 |
| I. Hartenstein | 10 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 30 |
| Isaiah Joe | 9 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 17 |
Spurs vs. Thunder game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's action between the Thunder and Spurs at Paycom Center is scheduled to commence at 2:30 PM ET.
- Who: San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
- Date: Thursday, December 25, 2025
- Time: 2:30 PM ET/11:30AM PT
- Venue: Paycom Center
Conclusion
We predict the Thunder, with a 77% win probability, will likely beat the Spurs on Christmas Day, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected for a game-high 55 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Spurs vs. Thunder insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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