Spurs vs. Thunder prediction: Oklahoma City favored to win Thursday's NBA matchup [12/25/2025]

The Oklahoma City Thunder will square off with the San Antonio Spurs in NBA action at Paycom Center on Christmas Day, commencing at 2:30 PM ET.

Based on updated simulations and today’s injury reports, Dimers' proven NBA model predicts the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Spurs vs. Thunder game.

This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Thunder lineup will feature players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, while the Spurs will rely on Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.

Spurs vs. Thunder prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NBA game between the Spurs and Thunder 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Thunder a 77% chance of beating the Spurs. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 121-112.

According to our model, the Spurs (+10) have a 55% chance of covering the spread, while the 234.5-point over/under has a 52% chance of staying under.

Spurs vs. Thunder odds

We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Spurs	Thunder
Spread	+10 (-112)	-10 (-108)
Moneyline	+315	-360
Total	o234.5 (-110)	u234.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Spurs vs. Thunder picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Spurs +10	-112
Moneyline	Thunder	-360
Total	Under 234.5	-110

According to our best NBA bets for Thursday, the top play to make on this game is Spurs +10 at the spread.

Spurs vs. Thunder player props

Looking for San Antonio vs. Oklahoma City NBA prop bets? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Paycom Center.

Victor Wembanyama is expected to lead the Spurs with 18 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected to have 32 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists for the Thunder.

Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.

Spurs prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Spurs are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
V. Wembanyama	18	9	3	2	42
De'Aaron Fox	18	4	5	2	36
Stephon Castle	18	6	6	1	38
Devin Vassell	15	4	2	3	29
Harrison Barnes	11	3	1	2	21

Thunder prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Thunder:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
S. Gilgeous-Alexander	32	5	7	2	55
Jalen Williams	20	5	5	2	40
Chet Holmgren	17	7	2	1	33
I. Hartenstein	10	9	3	0	30
Isaiah Joe	9	2	1	2	17

Spurs vs. Thunder game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's matchup between the Thunder and Spurs at Paycom Center is scheduled to start at 2:30 PM ET.

• Who: San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
• Date: Thursday, December 25, 2025
• Time: 2:30 PM ET/11:30AM PT
• Venue: Paycom Center

Conclusion

We predict the Thunder, with a 77% win probability, will likely beat the Spurs on Christmas Day, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected for a game-high 55 fantasy points.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Spurs vs. Thunder insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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