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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, December 25, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 12/25.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, December 25, 2025—are live with the Warriors' Stephen Curry projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Curry, Nikola Jokic and Alperen Sengun lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also identify tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (December 25, 2025)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 15.6% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 14.9% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 14.6% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 14.1% |
| Anthony Davis | Mavericks | 13.5% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 13.2% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 13.0% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 12.2% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 11.0% |
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 10.8% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 10.6% |
| Austin Reaves | Lakers | 10.3% |
| Deandre Ayton | Lakers | 10.0% |
| Amen Thompson | Rockets | 10.0% |
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 9.1% |
NBA first basket picks today (December 25, 2025)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 2.8% | +750 | 14.6% |
| Moses Moody | Warriors | 0.5% | +1200 | 8.2% |
| Deandre Ayton | Lakers | 0.0% | +900 | 10.0% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 12/25.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Thursday, December 25, 2025, Stephen Curry, Nikola Jokic and Alperen Sengun lead our first basket projections, with Sengun shaping as the strongest value play at +750. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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