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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, December 25, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 12/25.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, December 25, 2025—are live with the Warriors' Stephen Curry projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Curry, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also identify tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (December 25, 2025)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 15.6% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 15.1% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 14.9% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 14.8% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 14.6% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 14.1% |
| Anthony Davis | Mavericks | 13.5% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 13.4% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 13.2% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 13.0% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 12.2% |
| Chet Holmgren | Thunder | 11.3% |
| Jalen Williams | Thunder | 11.1% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 11.0% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 11.0% |
NBA first basket picks today (December 25, 2025)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deandre Ayton | Lakers | 0.9% | +1000 | 10.0% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 0.8% | +650 | 14.1% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 0.5% | +600 | 14.8% |
| Darius Garland | Cavaliers | 0.4% | +1000 | 9.5% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 0.3% | +600 | 14.6% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 12/25.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Thursday, December 25, 2025, Stephen Curry, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic lead our first basket projections, while Deandre Ayton shapes as the strongest value play at +1000. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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