Prospector Sam - NCAA Tournament Picks: Sunday 21 March

It would be an understatement to say that the opening weekend so far has been everything you could have hoped for as a basketball fan. From the game tying 3 in the opening match to force overtime, a 13 and 15 seed upset, and a ton of amazing play along the way, I can safely say that March Madness didn’t skip a beat from the year off. I couldn’t help but just smile on opening day because I had so much damn fun watching 12 hours of basketball that I would have been happy no matter what.

All those warm and fuzzies aside, this is still about making money and I’ll be damned if I’m going to slow down on my picks. We made some solid profit this weekend, and you bet your ass we’re going to try again today. Let’s get after it. 

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🏀 Loyola vs. Illinois

The Selection Committee wants to pretend they don’t set up matchups like this one on purpose, but I’ll be the first to tell you that they’re lying through their damn teeth. The same way they conveniently set a fist four matchup between Drake and Wichita State, who used to be in-conference rivals until the Shockers left for the AAC, the bracket has a consistent habit of creating matchups with interesting storylines. 

Loyola is a tough draw for a No. 1 seed in round two, but the committee also has a habit of setting up tougher tests for schools that aren’t normally good. It all worked out too well.

Putting those conspiracies aside for the game, I’m not sure I learned a ton about either team from their first round performance. Illinois pissed all over a helpless Drexel team that never had a prayer, and the game was long over by half time. Loyola took down a GT team without its best player, but did so with one of the most shocking stat lines I’ve ever seen. The Ramblers were incredible on the defensive boards, and gave up just one offensive rebound all game, but Tech also shot almost 60% from the field. For a team who prides itself on defense, that is not a number that inspires confidence. So the real issue is, should we be impressed that they won despite a crazy good shooting night by their opponent, or worried that they gave up such a high percentage of shots? I’m going with the latter.

Loyola is not built for comebacks, and want to slow down the pace of the game. They managed to overcome a 10+ point deficit on Thursday, but they won’t be able to if this Illinois team starts puling away. More importantly, U of I is just too good for Loyola right now. I actually picked the Ramblers to win this game in my bracket, but you can’t get stuck in previous decisions as a gambler. What I see right now is an Illinois team that is just far better all over the floor, and who will manhandle Loyola on the boards. I like the Illini by about 10. 

💰 Pick: Illinois -7

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🏀 Wisconsin vs. Baylor

I expected Wisconsin to win, and picked them on Friday, but even I didn’t see that level of decimation coming. The Badgers embarrassed UNC, dominating them with the three and playing fundamentally sound basketball. I’m actually thrilled by that result, because it pushed the line on this game down and gave a great spot to hammer Baylor.

Wisconsin is a solid team, but nowhere near as good as they looked on Friday. They got lucky by drawing a rudderless Tar Heels side, but Baylor is an entirely different challenge and is going to be a nightmare for them defensively. The Bears have 4 talented guards who defend well and play selfless basketball on the offensive end. They are a little undersized as a team, but against Wisconsin that wont be as much of an issue.

Baylor still doesn’t look to be fully back to their pre-Covid level, but its hard not to love this team and they got a huge boost by Purdue choking hard against UNT (as far as future matchups). Wisconsin won’t be a pushover and will be playing with some momentum after that performance, but I think Baylor will defend them much better, especially near the ark, and will handle a spotty Wisconsin team by closer to 10 points. 

💰 Pick: Baylor -6.5

🏀 Syracuse vs. West Virginia

Oh boy. I try my hardest to be objective when it comes to Syracuse, and I think I do a fairly good job of it. Unfortunately, my Syracuse pick on Thursday was by far my worst miss, and I obviously want them to win. So take anything here with a grain of salt and know that I’m writing and thinking about this while also having a heavy personal interest in the outcome. 

Moving on, I discussed last time how important the Zone is in the tournament, and how much of a problem it can be for teams. SDSU learned that lesson the hard way, and they completely fell apart when trying to adjust to a defense they hadn’t seen before. And yes, I know that they’ve seen a 2-3 zone many times, but nothing really compares to what Syracuse does. Add in the fact that Buddy Boeheim couldn’t miss, and the Aztecs never really had a prayer.

WVU presents an entirely different issue for the Orange. They have more talent than the MW Champions, and they have an inside game that’s going to cause huge issues for the Zone. If the Mountaineers can figure out how to effectively move the ball inside out and cause the Zone to collapse, then they will see a bunch of good looks and Miles McBride will have a field day. The problem is, whether or not they can figure out the puzzle quickly enough; Because the biggest issue isn’t that teams have never played the Zone, it's that it's nearly impossible to prepare for. You can’t replicate it in your practices, and you basically have to hope that your players can adapt on the fly or just shoot well enough to negate the issue. Unfortunately, I like them to do it, especially with just a 3.5 point line. 

Syracuse squeaked into the tournament, but did so in the most boring way possible. Their pitch was basically, “we didn’t beat anyone good, but we also beat everyone we were supposed to.” That was enough to get them in, and to beat an SDSU team that plays well but is less talented than other top programs. WVU wont be nearly as fun. The Mountaineers have beaten seven tournament teams this season, including TTU, Kansas and Texas, and held their own with Gonzaga. This is a complete team has earned top 10 status, and that’s the kind of team Syracuse has cratered against this season. It's never a good sign when your best win of the year is the first game of the tournament, and ‘Cuses three other “best” wins were against UNC, VT, and Clemson, all of whom crashed out of the Dance in round one.

Basically, it was nice to over perform and win a game, but unless Buddy produces another crazy shooting night and WVU has a bad game, WVU wins this comfortably.

💰 Pick: WVU -3.5

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🏀 Texas Tech vs. Arkansas

Both of these teams did exactly what I said they would in round 1, and I’m going to try my best to carry that “expertise” into this game. TTU showed on Thursday that, at their best, they are as good as almost anyone in the country, but they can only do that when they move the ball effectively on the offensive end. Mac McClung was unselfish enough and they easily handled an overmatched Utah state team. The basic problem is, its hard to say whether or not they can keep doing it. Technically speaking, they certainly can, but they seem insistent on ignoring basketball fundamentals and letting McClung do everything some nights (to their own detriment). More important for me in this match, though, is what they showed defensively. TTU defends well and causes tons of problems for shooters. Arkansas is going to have major issues with that reality. The Razorbacks looked completely lost early on against Colgate, and they only managed to overcome a big deficit because Colgate refused to slow the tempo and draw out the game, which led to tons of easy baskets for Arkansas. Against a team that will force them to be methodical and efficient in order to win, the Razorbacks will be in huge trouble if they cant cut down on turnovers and bad possessions. From what I saw Thursday, this team sets up well to beat teams who will play their style, but will have trouble if they can’t dictate tempo. That’s why they can beat teams like Alabama, but struggle with teams like LSU. I think the Red Raiders are the smart money based on the matchup, and I expect that they cover

💰 Pick: TTU -1

🏀 Oral Roberts vs. Florida

I doubt there will be a person in the country rooting for the Gators in this one who isn’t a Florida fan. Oral Roberts’ performance against OSU was a blast, and they thoroughly deserved to win. More importantly, Max Abmas is a legitimate talent and this team shoots the ball well from the line, which is a massive boost in the tournament. The problem they will face is how to handle Colin Castleton. He was a beast on the boards against VT and is entirely the reason they won that game. At 6’11, the Golden Eagles are going to have massive matchup issues and are going to give up some offensive boards. But I like how ORU looks right now, and at 8 points I just don’t love Florida enough to give up that many against a team shooting the 3 with confidence. I’m not sure I’d be throwing big money on Oral Roberts to win, but I think they keep this close.

💰 Pick: Oral Roberts +8

🏀 North Texas vs. Villanova

North Texas deserves some credit for handling a solid Purdue squad who was basically playing a home game, but I don’t think the Mean Green are entirely responsible for that win. That felt more like a complete dud of a performance by the Boilermakers than anything else, though credit UNT for slowing the game and frustrating Purdue on offense. Villanova, on the other hand, did impress me. They’ve had enough time since Collin Gillespie’s injury to sort out their offense, and looked thoroughly in control against a fairly capable Winthrop team that many, including myself, felt could beat the Wildcats. Lucky for them, they’re getting the exact same style of matchup here. I’m not saying North Texas and Winthrop play similar types of basketball, because they certainly don’t, but that this is another game where Villanova will be facing an opponent that has way less recruiting power and talent, and who will have to overcome those limitations by over performing. I don’t see it happening again for North Texas. UNT played solid, but they barely won despite some extremely sloppy play by their opponent. Jay Wright, one of the better coaches in the country, will prepare his team well, and Villanova will play smart and disciplined basketball, especially without one of their star players. I expect the Wildcats handle this game comfortably, by closer to 10.

💰 Pick: Villanova -6.5

🏀 Oregon State vs. Oklahoma State

Talk about not showing up to play, Tennessee looked like they didn’t even know they were playing basketball in their first round matchup. Oregon State got up early and never looked back, in what was maybe the easiest win by a 12 seed ever. Oklahoma State had some issues with a pesky Liberty team that didn’t want to go away, but they closed them out comfortably despite Cade Cunningham having an unusually pedestrian night. The biggest fact in this matchup for me is that I just don’t believe in Oregon State. Sure, they’ve had a nice run over the last few weeks, but the body of work for the season shows a team that really isn’t good enough to even be here. Credit for taking advantage of opportunities and showing up in big moments, but Oklahoma State isn’t going to roll over the way the Volunteers did. Cade Cunningham is going to be an absolute nightmare for the Beavers and the supporting cast has been putting up enough production to make this team extremely dangerous. This feel like it could still be relatively close for most of the game, but I think the Cowboys run away with it at the end.

💰 Pick: Oklahoma State -6.5

🏀 Houston vs. Rutgers

Call me crazy, but I like Rutgers a lot here. In fact, if I were to give an upset pick for the day to bet, it would be this one. Despite and absolutely awful night shooting the ball, going 8-30 from 3, the Knights still managed to make shots when it mattered and shut down Clemson on the defensive end. Houston had an impressive game against Cleveland State, and proved that, on their best night, they can absolutely dominate most teams. But Houston has two big issues to contend with. The first is that they haven’t played a real team since November 29 when they faced Texas Tech. Winning a lot is nice, but I don’t think beating up on Temple and Tulane shows me a whole lot.

On top of that, Houston has nights where they just plain suck. They lost games to Tulsa and ECU, while also struggling heavily against Memphis in multiple late-season matchups where the Tigers caused problems for Houston defensively. Against Rutgers, Houston is facing a team with much more talent than the Cougars are used to seeing, and a team who’s biggest strengths are its defense and inside scoring. Rutgers is going to need better 3-point shooting if they want to be competitive, and if they shoot 25% again Houston will blow them straight out of the water. But if the Knights play solid defense and make a few more shots against a Houston team that isn’t a lockdown defensive unit, and I think Rutgers could give them at least a scare. Throw a few pennies down on the ML for fun, and I think the line is an extremely solid pick

💰 Pick: Rutgers +8.5

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RELATED:

🏀 Ian Gold's Sunday NCAA Picks
🏀 Dimers' Best March Madness Picks

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