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Read Article Fire vs. Liberty prediction: New York favored to win Monday's WNBA game [5/25/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Portland Fire vs New York Liberty predictions for WNBA Monday.
The New York Liberty and Portland Fire will meet in the WNBA at Barclays Center on Monday, with tipoff at 8:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Liberty as the most likely winner of the Fire vs. Liberty game.
The Liberty, with stars like Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Satou Sabally, are set to take on the Fire, whose lineup includes Carla Leite, Bridget Carleton and Emily Engstler.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Monday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Fire vs. Liberty prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's WNBA game between the Fire and Liberty, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Liberty an 86% chance of beating the Fire.
According to our model, the Liberty (-10.5) have a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 172.5 points has a 56% chance of staying under.
Fire vs. Liberty odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Fire | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +10.5 (-105) | -10.5 (-108) |
| Moneyline | +400 | -450 |
| Total | o172.5 (-108) | u172.5 (-112) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Fire vs. Liberty picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Liberty -10.5 | -108 |
| Moneyline | Liberty | -450 |
| Total | Under 172.5 | -112 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Liberty to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Fire vs. Liberty player props
Looking for Portland vs. New York WNBA prop bets? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Barclays Center.
Carla Leite is expected to lead the Fire with 10 points, 2 rebounds and 3 assists, while Breanna Stewart is projected to have 20 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists for the Liberty.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's WNBA first basket picks.
Fire prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Fire are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Leite | 10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 20 |
| B. Carleton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 21 |
| Emily Engstler | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 25 |
| L. Geiselsoder | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 19 |
| Nyadiew Puoch | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15 |
Liberty prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Liberty:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breanna Stewart | 20 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 43 |
| Sabrina Ionescu | 16 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 35 |
| Satou Sabally | 16 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 31 |
| Jonquel Jones | 14 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 35 |
| Pauline Astier | 13 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 25 |
Fire vs. Liberty game-day updates and essential details
Monday's action between the Liberty and Fire at Barclays Center is scheduled to start at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Portland Fire vs. New York Liberty
- Date: Monday, May 25, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: Barclays Center
Conclusion
We predict the Liberty, with an 86% win probability, will likely beat the Fire in Monday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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