May 25, 2026
WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Monday, May 25, 2026
Read Article Fire vs. Liberty prediction: New York favored to win Monday's WNBA game [5/25/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Portland Fire vs New York Liberty predictions for WNBA Monday.
WNBA action continues on Monday at 8:00 PM ET as the Portland Fire take on the New York Liberty at Barclays Center.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Liberty as the most likely winner of the Fire vs. Liberty game.
The Liberty, who have star players such as Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Satou Sabally, are set to take on the Fire, who feature Carla Leite, Bridget Carleton and Emily Engstler.
This article offers further insights into Monday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Fire vs. Liberty prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's WNBA matchup between the Fire and Liberty, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Liberty an 89% chance of beating the Fire.
According to our model, the Liberty (-12.5) have a 52% chance of covering the spread, while the 176.5-point over/under has a 60% chance of staying under.
Fire vs. Liberty odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Fire | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +12.5 (-110) | -12.5 (-108) |
| Moneyline | +500 | -600 |
| Total | o176.5 (-110) | u176.5 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Fire vs. Liberty picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Liberty -12.5 | -108 |
| Moneyline | Liberty | -600 |
| Total | Under 176.5 | -108 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 176.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Fire vs. Liberty player props
WNBA prop bets are a common way to wager on the Fire vs. Liberty game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Barclays Center.
Carla Leite is expected to lead the Fire with 10 points, 2 rebounds and 3 assists, while Breanna Stewart is projected to have 20 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists for the Liberty.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's WNBA first basket picks.
Fire prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Fire are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Leite | 10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 20 |
| B. Carleton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 21 |
| Emily Engstler | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 24 |
| L. Geiselsoder | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 19 |
| Nyadiew Puoch | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15 |
Liberty prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Liberty:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breanna Stewart | 20 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 43 |
| Sabrina Ionescu | 17 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 38 |
| Satou Sabally | 16 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 31 |
| Jonquel Jones | 14 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 35 |
| Pauline Astier | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 |
Fire vs. Liberty game-day updates and essential details
Monday's action between the Liberty and Fire at Barclays Center is scheduled to commence at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Portland Fire vs. New York Liberty
- Date: Monday, May 25, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: Barclays Center
Conclusion
We predict the Liberty, with an 89% win probability, will likely beat the Fire in Monday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Continue reading with Dimers Pro
Join now to unlock this article and get full access to our predictions and betting tools. Cancel anytime.
$0 for 3 days
then $14.99/week
Already a Pro member? Log in
New here? See everything Pro includes
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
Advertiser disclosure
