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Pirates vs. Diamondbacks prediction: Why Arizona is favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [5/7/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks predictions for MLB Thursday.
The Arizona Diamondbacks and Pittsburgh Pirates will lock horns in MLB action at Chase Field on Thursday, starting at 3:40 PM ET.
The Diamondbacks will send Zac Gallen (1-2, 4.45 ERA) to the mound, pitting him against Mitch Keller (3-1, 2.85 ERA) for the Pirates.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Diamondbacks a slight edge with a 54% win probability over the Pirates.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's Pirates vs. Diamondbacks matchup, including best bets and picks.
Pirates vs. Diamondbacks prediction: Who will win?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's MLB game between the Pirates and Diamondbacks, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Diamondbacks a 54% chance of defeating the Pirates.
According to our model, the over/under total of nine runs has a 56% chance of going over.
Pirates vs. Diamondbacks odds [5/7/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Pirates | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -103 | -112 |
| Total | o9 (-101) | u9 (-129) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Pirates vs. Diamondbacks picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Diamondbacks | -112 |
| Total | Over 9 | -101 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 9 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Pirates vs. Diamondbacks game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's MLB game between the Diamondbacks and Pirates at Chase Field is scheduled to begin at 3:40 PM ET.
- Who: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
- Date: Thursday, May 7, 2026
- Time: 3:40 PM ET/12:40PM PT
- Venue: Chase Field
Conclusion
We predict the Diamondbacks, with a 54% win probability, will likely beat the Pirates in Thursday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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