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Read Article Mercury vs. Liberty prediction: New York favored to win Wednesday's WNBA game [5/27/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty predictions for WNBA Wednesday.
The New York Liberty and Phoenix Mercury will lock horns in the WNBA at Barclays Center on Wednesday, with tipoff at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced WNBA model predicts the Liberty as the most likely winner of the Mercury vs. Liberty game.
The Liberty, who have the likes of Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones and Pauline Astier, will face off against the Mercury, whose lineup includes Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and Jovana Nogic.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Wednesday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Mercury vs. Liberty prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Wednesday's WNBA game between the Mercury and Liberty, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Liberty a 69% chance of defeating the Mercury.
According to our model, the Liberty (-4.5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 169.5 points has a 56% chance of staying under.
Mercury vs. Liberty odds
We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mercury | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +4.5 (-115) | -4.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | +150 | -168 |
| Total | o169.5 (-110) | u169.5 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mercury vs. Liberty picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Liberty -4.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Liberty | -168 |
| Total | Under 169.5 | -108 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Liberty to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mercury vs. Liberty player props
WNBA prop bets are an exciting way to wager on Wednesday's Phoenix vs. New York game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Barclays Center.
Kahleah Copper is expected to lead the Mercury with 18 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists, while Breanna Stewart is projected to have 18 points, 7 rebounds and 3 assists for the Liberty.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's WNBA first basket picks.
Mercury prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Mercury are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper | 18 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 30 |
| Alyssa Thomas | 18 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 52 |
| Jovana Nogic | 13 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 20 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 12 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 26 |
| Natasha Mack | 7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
Liberty prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Liberty:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breanna Stewart | 18 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 38 |
| Jonquel Jones | 13 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 32 |
| Pauline Astier | 12 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 25 |
| Satou Sabally | 11 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| Marine Johannes | 9 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
Mercury vs. Liberty game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's matchup between the Liberty and Mercury at Barclays Center is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty
- Date: Wednesday, May 27, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Barclays Center
Conclusion
We predict the Liberty, with a 69% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Wednesday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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