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Mercury vs. Aces prediction: Las Vegas favored to win Saturday's WNBA game [5/9/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces predictions for WNBA Saturday.
The Las Vegas Aces and Phoenix Mercury are scheduled to meet in the WNBA at T-Mobile Arena on Saturday, with tipoff at 3:30 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model projects the Aces as the most likely winner of the Mercury vs. Aces game.
The Aces, with star players such as A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray, are set to take on the Mercury, featuring Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Mercury vs. Aces prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's WNBA game between the Mercury and Aces, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Aces a 67% chance of defeating the Mercury.
According to our model, the Mercury (+8.5) have a 63% chance of covering the spread, while the 167.5-point over/under has a 52% chance of going over.
Mercury vs. Aces odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mercury | Aces |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +8.5 (-105) | -8.5 (-115) |
| Moneyline | +320 | -400 |
| Total | o167.5 (-110) | u167.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mercury vs. Aces picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mercury +8.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Mercury | +320 |
| Total | Over 167.5 | -110 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mercury +8.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mercury vs. Aces player props
WNBA prop bets are an exciting way to wager on Saturday's Mercury vs. Aces game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at T-Mobile Arena.
Kahleah Copper is expected to lead the Mercury with 18 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists, while A'ja Wilson is projected to have 25 points, 12 rebounds and 3 assists for the Aces.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's WNBA first basket picks.
Mercury prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Mercury are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper | 18 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 29 |
| Alyssa Thomas | 16 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 49 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 29 |
| Natasha Mack | 8 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 27 |
| Kiana Williams | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
Aces prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Aces:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A'ja Wilson | 25 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 53 |
| Jackie Young | 19 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 40 |
| Chelsea Gray | 11 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 33 |
| Jewell Loyd | 11 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| Chennedy Carter | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
Mercury vs. Aces game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's game between the Aces and Mercury at T-Mobile Arena is scheduled to commence at 3:30 PM ET.
- Who: Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces
- Date: Saturday, May 9, 2026
- Time: 3:30 PM ET/12:30PM PT
- Venue: T-Mobile Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Aces, with a 67% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Saturday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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