Jun 24, 2026
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Read Article Mercury vs. Fever prediction: Caitlin Clark projected to score 20 points in Wednesday's WNBA matchup [6/24/2026]
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Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Phoenix Mercury vs Indiana Fever predictions for WNBA Wednesday.
The Indiana Fever will face the Phoenix Mercury in WNBA action at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Wednesday, beginning at 7:30 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Fever as the most likely winner of the Mercury vs. Fever game.
The Fever, with the likes of Kelsey Mitchell, Caitlin Clark and Aliyah Boston, will face off against the Mercury, featuring Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and Valeriane Ayayi.
Clark, the Fever's No. 1 pick in the 2024 WNBA draft, is expected to deliver a standout performance with a projected 20 points and 3 threes.
This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Mercury vs. Fever prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Wednesday's WNBA game between the Mercury and Fever, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Fever a 78.4% chance of defeating the Mercury.
According to our model, the Mercury (+8.5) have a 50.5% chance of covering the spread, while the 175.5-point over/under has a 61.4% chance of staying under,.
Mercury vs. Fever odds
We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mercury | Fever |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +8.5 (-110) | -8.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +320 | -385 |
| Total | o175.5 (-110) | u175.5 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mercury vs. Fever picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mercury +8.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Fever | -385 |
| Total | Under 175.5 | -108 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 175.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mercury vs. Fever player props
WNBA prop bets are a common way to wager on Wednesday's Phoenix vs. Indiana matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Kahleah Copper is expected to lead the Mercury with 19 points, 3 rebounds and 1 assists, while Kelsey Mitchell is projected to have 22 points, 2 rebounds and 3 assists for the Fever.
When evaluating the first basket market, Kahleah Copper is our top projected player to score first, backed by a 15.1% probability.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Mercury prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Mercury are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper | 19 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 29 |
| Alyssa Thomas | 17 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 47 |
| Valeriane Ayayi | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 26 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 21 |
| Alexa Held | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 19 |
Fever prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Fever:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelsey Mitchell | 22 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 34 |
| Caitlin Clark | 20 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 47 |
| Aliyah Boston | 15 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 38 |
| S. Cunningham | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 17 |
| M. Billings | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 17 |
Mercury vs. Fever game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's matchup between the Fever and Mercury at Gainbridge Fieldhouse is scheduled to commence at 7:30 PM ET.
- Who: Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever
- Date: Wednesday, June 24, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
- Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Conclusion
We predict the Fever, with a 78.4% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Wednesday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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