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Mercury vs. Valkyries prediction: Golden State favored to win Sunday's WNBA matchup [5/10/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Phoenix Mercury vs Golden State Valkyries predictions for WNBA Sunday.
WNBA action continues on Sunday at 8:30 PM ET as the Phoenix Mercury lock horns with the Golden State Valkyries at Chase Center.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Valkyries as the most likely winner of the Mercury vs. Valkyries game.
The Valkyries, powered by Veronica Burton, Gabby Williams and Janelle Salaun, will face off against the Mercury, who feature Alyssa Thomas, Kahleah Copper and DeWanna Bonner.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Mercury vs. Valkyries prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's WNBA matchup between the Mercury and Valkyries, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Valkyries a 55% chance of beating the Mercury.
According to our model, the Mercury (+2.5) have a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 158.5 points has a 55% chance of going over.
Mercury vs. Valkyries odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mercury | Valkyries |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +2.5 (-110) | -2.5 (-108) |
| Moneyline | +120 | -145 |
| Total | o158.5 (-115) | u158.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mercury vs. Valkyries picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mercury +2.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Mercury | +120 |
| Total | Over 158.5 | -115 |
According to our best WNBA bets, the top play to make on this game is Mercury +2.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mercury vs. Valkyries player props
WNBA prop bets are an enjoyable way to wager on Sunday's Phoenix vs. Golden State matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Chase Center.
Alyssa Thomas is expected to lead the Mercury with 15 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists, while Veronica Burton is projected to have 13 points, 4 rebounds and 6 assists for the Valkyries.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's WNBA first basket picks.
Mercury prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Mercury are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyssa Thomas | 15 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 48 |
| Kahleah Copper | 13 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 21 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 11 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 26 |
| Natasha Mack | 8 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 30 |
| Kiana Williams | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
Valkyries prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Valkyries:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Veronica Burton | 13 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 34 |
| Gabby Williams | 10 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 26 |
| Janelle Salaun | 10 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 |
| Kayla Thornton | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| Kaila Charles | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
Mercury vs. Valkyries game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's matchup between the Valkyries and Mercury at Chase Center is scheduled to start at 8:30 PM ET.
- Who: Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries
- Date: Sunday, May 10, 2026
- Time: 8:30 PM ET/5:30PM PT
- Venue: Chase Center
Conclusion
We predict the Valkyries, with a 55% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Sunday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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