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Read Article Mercury vs. Wings prediction: Paige Bueckers projected to score 19 points in Thursday's WNBA game [6/11/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Phoenix Mercury vs Dallas Wings predictions for WNBA Thursday.
The Dallas Wings will square off with the Phoenix Mercury in WNBA action at College Park Center on Thursday, beginning at 9:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Wings as the most likely winner of the Mercury vs. Wings game.
The Wings, with star players like Paige Bueckers, Arike Ogunbowale and Azzi Fudd, will face off against the Mercury, who feature Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and Monique Akoa-Makani.
Bueckers, the Wings' No. 1 pick in the 2025 WNBA draft, is expected to shine with a projected 19 points and 1 three.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Mercury vs. Wings prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's WNBA game between the Mercury and Wings, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Wings a 70.5% chance of defeating the Mercury.
According to our model, the Mercury (+6.5) have a 53.8% chance of covering the spread, while the 169.5-point over/under has a 52.5% chance of going over,.
Mercury vs. Wings odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mercury | Wings |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +6.5 (-102) | -6.5 (-114) |
| Moneyline | +235 | -265 |
| Total | o169.5 (-105) | u169.5 (-114) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mercury vs. Wings picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mercury +6.5 | -102 |
| Moneyline | Mercury | +235 |
| Total | Over 169.5 | -105 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mercury +6.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mercury vs. Wings player props
WNBA prop bets are a great way to wager on Thursday's Mercury vs. Wings matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at College Park Center.
Kahleah Copper is expected to lead the Mercury with 17 points, 3 rebounds and 2 assists, while Paige Bueckers is projected to have 19 points, 4 rebounds and 6 assists for the Wings.
Shifting focus to the first basket market, our projections highlight Kahleah Copper as the most likely player to open the scoring.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Mercury prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Mercury are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper | 17 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 28 |
| Alyssa Thomas | 16 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 47 |
| M. Akoa-Makani | 11 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 25 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 11 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 23 |
| Natasha Mack | 8 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 27 |
Wings prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Wings:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paige Bueckers | 19 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 38 |
| A. Ogunbowale | 17 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 31 |
| Azzi Fudd | 15 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 28 |
| Jessica Shepard | 12 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 37 |
| Maddy Siegrist | 9 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18 |
Mercury vs. Wings game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's matchup between the Wings and Mercury at College Park Center is scheduled to begin at 9:00 PM ET.
- Who: Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings
- Date: Thursday, June 11, 2026
- Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00PM PT
- Venue: College Park Center
Conclusion
We predict the Wings, with a 70.5% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Thursday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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