Jun 10, 2026
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Read Article WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, June 11, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 6/11.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, June 11, 2026—are live with the Aces' A'ja Wilson projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Wilson, Kahleah Copper and Breanna Stewart lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also identify tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (June 11, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| A'ja Wilson (Aces) | 16.2% |
| Kahleah Copper (Mercury) | 13.4% |
| Breanna Stewart (Liberty) | 13.1% |
| Kelsey Mitchell (Fever) | 12.9% |
| Allisha Gray (Dream) | 12.9% |
| Megan Gustafson (Fire) | 12.6% |
| Aliyah Boston (Fever) | 12.6% |
| Pauline Astier (Liberty) | 12.1% |
| Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) | 11.8% |
| Paige Bueckers (Wings) | 11.3% |
| Caitlin Clark (Fever) | 11.2% |
| Rhyne Howard (Dream) | 11.1% |
| NaLyssa Smith (Aces) | 11.1% |
| Maddy Siegrist (Wings) | 11.0% |
| Skylar Diggins-Smith (Sky) | 11.0% |
| Kamilla Cardoso (Sky) | 10.9% |
| Carla Leite (Fire) | 10.6% |
| Azura Stevens (Sky) | 10.6% |
| Jonquel Jones (Liberty) | 10.6% |
| Jackie Young (Aces) | 10.4% |
| Sarah Ashlee Barker (Fire) | 10.0% |
| Angel Reese (Dream) | 9.6% |
| Jessica Shepard (Wings) | 9.6% |
| Azzi Fudd (Wings) | 9.4% |
| DeWanna Bonner (Mercury) | 9.3% |
| Marine Johannes (Liberty) | 9.3% |
| Jordin Canada (Dream) | 9.2% |
| Gabriela Jaquez (Sky) | 9.2% |
| Emily Engstler (Fire) | 8.7% |
| Monique Akoa-Makani (Mercury) | 8.7% |
| Arike Ogunbowale (Wings) | 8.7% |
| Natasha Cloud (Sky) | 8.3% |
| Bridget Carleton (Fire) | 8.0% |
| Sophie Cunningham (Fever) | 7.7% |
| Chelsea Gray (Aces) | 7.2% |
| Naz Hillmon (Dream) | 7.1% |
| Noemie Brochant (Mercury) | 6.7% |
| Lexie Hull (Fever) | 5.6% |
| Jewell Loyd (Aces) | 5.2% |
| Leonie Fiebich (Liberty) | 5.0% |
WNBA first basket picks today (June 11, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Megan Gustafson | Fire | 4.9% | +1200 | 12.6% |
| Allisha Gray | Dream | 3.4% | +950 | 12.9% |
| Pauline Astier | Liberty | 2.6% | +950 | 12.1% |
| Maddy Siegrist | Wings | 1.9% | +1000 | 11.0% |
| Arike Ogunbowale | Wings | 1.5% | +1300 | 8.7% |
| Chelsea Gray | Aces | 1.3% | +1600 | 7.2% |
| Jordin Canada | Dream | 0.9% | +1100 | 9.2% |
| Noemie Brochant | Mercury | 0.9% | +1600 | 6.7% |
| Marine Johannes | Liberty | 0.2% | +1000 | 9.3% |
| Caitlin Clark | Fever | 0.1% | +800 | 11.2% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 6/11.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Thursday, June 11, 2026, A'ja Wilson, Kahleah Copper and Breanna Stewart lead our first basket projections, while Megan Gustafson shapes as the strongest value play at +1200. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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