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Read Article Mercury vs. Dream prediction: Why Atlanta is favored to win Sunday's WNBA game [5/24/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Phoenix Mercury vs Atlanta Dream predictions for WNBA Sunday.
The Atlanta Dream will face the Phoenix Mercury in WNBA action at Gateway Center Arena on Sunday, beginning at 3:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced WNBA model predicts the Dream as the most likely winner of the Mercury vs. Dream game.
The Dream, with star players such as Allisha Gray, Rhyne Howard and Angel Reese, are set to take on the Mercury, whose lineup includes Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Mercury vs. Dream prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's WNBA game between the Mercury and Dream, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Dream a 72% chance of beating the Mercury.
According to our model, the Dream (-5.5) have a 51% chance of covering the spread, while the 169.5-point over/under has a 51% chance of staying under.
Mercury vs. Dream odds
We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mercury | Dream |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +5.5 (-108) | -5.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +185 | -220 |
| Total | o169.5 (-105) | u169.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mercury vs. Dream picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Dream -5.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Dream | -220 |
| Total | Under 169.5 | -110 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Dream to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mercury vs. Dream player props
Betting on Phoenix vs. Atlanta WNBA player props? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Gateway Center Arena.
Kahleah Copper is expected to lead the Mercury with 16 points, 3 rebounds and 2 assists, while Allisha Gray is projected to have 19 points, 6 rebounds and 3 assists for the Dream.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's WNBA first basket picks.
Mercury prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Mercury are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper | 16 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 26 |
| Alyssa Thomas | 15 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 43 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 12 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 26 |
| Jovana Nogic | 11 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| Natasha Mack | 7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 27 |
Dream prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Dream:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allisha Gray | 19 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 37 |
| Rhyne Howard | 18 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 38 |
| Angel Reese | 14 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 41 |
| Jordin Canada | 12 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 32 |
| Naz Hillmon | 10 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 27 |
Mercury vs. Dream game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's matchup between the Dream and Mercury at Gateway Center Arena is scheduled to start at 3:00 PM ET.
- Who: Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream
- Date: Sunday, May 24, 2026
- Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
- Venue: Gateway Center Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Dream, with a 72% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Sunday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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