May 24, 2026
Best WNBA bets today: Sunday's picks include Mystics vs. Storm play [5/24/2026]
Read Article WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, May 24, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 5/24.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, May 24, 2026—are live with the Mavericks' Paige Bueckers projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections make use of key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Bueckers, Breanna Stewart and Kiki Iriafen lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also showcase tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (May 24, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| Paige Bueckers (Wings) | 15.7% |
| Breanna Stewart (Liberty) | 14.0% |
| Kiki Iriafen (Mystics) | 13.8% |
| Kahleah Copper (Mercury) | 13.5% |
| Zia Cooke (Storm) | 13.0% |
| Allisha Gray (Dream) | 12.4% |
| Rhyne Howard (Dream) | 11.8% |
| Satou Sabally (Liberty) | 11.7% |
| Shakira Austin (Mystics) | 11.5% |
| Natisha Hiedeman (Storm) | 11.2% |
| Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) | 11.0% |
| Flau'jae Johnson (Storm) | 10.7% |
| Sonia Citron (Mystics) | 10.4% |
| Angel Reese (Dream) | 10.0% |
| Azzi Fudd (Wings) | 10.0% |
| Natasha Mack (Mercury) | 9.8% |
| Sabrina Ionescu (Liberty) | 9.6% |
| Arike Ogunbowale (Wings) | 9.1% |
| Jade Melbourne (Storm) | 9.0% |
| DeWanna Bonner (Mercury) | 8.8% |
| Cotie McMahon (Mystics) | 8.7% |
| Jordin Canada (Dream) | 8.3% |
| Jessica Shepard (Wings) | 8.3% |
| Jonquel Jones (Liberty) | 7.5% |
| Naz Hillmon (Dream) | 7.5% |
| Marine Johannes (Liberty) | 7.1% |
| Alanna Smith (Wings) | 6.8% |
| Monique Akoa-Makani (Mercury) | 6.8% |
| Stefanie Dolson (Storm) | 6.1% |
| Georgia Amoore (Mystics) | 5.6% |
WNBA first basket picks today (May 24, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paige Bueckers | Wings | 4.0% | +750 | 15.7% |
| Jordin Canada | Dream | 2.1% | +1500 | 8.3% |
| Natisha Hiedeman | Storm | 1.7% | +950 | 11.2% |
| Naz Hillmon | Dream | 1.7% | +1600 | 7.5% |
| Cotie McMahon | Mystics | 1.6% | +1300 | 8.7% |
| Natasha Mack | Mercury | 1.5% | +1100 | 9.8% |
| Kiki Iriafen | Mystics | 1.3% | +700 | 13.8% |
| Rhyne Howard | Dream | 0.6% | +800 | 11.8% |
| Arike Ogunbowale | Wings | 0.0% | +1000 | 9.1% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 5/24.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Sunday, May 24, 2026, Paige Bueckers, Breanna Stewart and Kiki Iriafen lead our first basket projections, with Bueckers shaping as the strongest value play at +750. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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