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Read Article Phillies vs. Padres prediction: Philadelphia favored to win Monday's MLB matchup [5/25/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres predictions for MLB Monday.
The San Diego Padres will take on the Philadelphia Phillies, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at Petco Park on Monday, commencing at 6:40 PM ET.
Griffin Canning (0-2, 9.00 ERA) will get the ball for the Padres, while the Phillies are going with Jesús Luzardo (3-4, 4.85 ERA).
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Phillies a slight edge with a 52% win probability over the Padres.
This article offers further insights into Monday's Phillies vs. Padres matchup, including best bets and picks.
Phillies vs. Padres prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's MLB matchup between the Phillies and Padres, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Phillies a 52% chance of defeating the Padres.
According to our model, the Padres (+1.5) have a 61% chance of covering the run line, while the 7-run over/under has a 56% chance of going over.
Phillies vs. Padres odds [5/25/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Phillies | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (+144) | +1.5 (-156) |
| Moneyline | -120 | +110 |
| Total | o7 (-118) | u7 (-102) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Phillies vs. Padres picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Padres +1.5 | -156 |
| Moneyline | Padres | +110 |
| Total | Over 7 | -118 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Phillies vs. Padres game-day updates and essential details
Monday's MLB matchup between the Padres and Phillies at Petco Park is scheduled to commence at 6:40 PM ET.
- Who: Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
- Date: Monday, May 25, 2026
- Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40PM PT
- Venue: Petco Park
Conclusion
We predict the Phillies, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat the Padres in Monday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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