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PGA Golf Best Bets: Our PGA Championship Winner Picks and Predictions

PGA Golf Best Bets: Our PGA Championship Winner Picks and Predictions

The second Golf major of the year has arrived! The LIV crew are in town and the PGA's best will all be competing in this loaded field.

Our predictive analytics model has run 1000s of simulations for the PGA Championship, identifying value bets in the winner and placement markets. We're heading to Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, KY with a $17.5 million purse up for grabs, the fourth time the course has hosted this event.


Betting Golf with Dimers Pro

For a limited time, you can score three months of Dimers Pro on us after signing up and placing your first wager at BetMGM! 

Dimers Pro gives you access to everything Dimers has to offer right now and in the future, including our full list of today’s best bets and our cutting-edge Parlay Picker.

We've partnered with BetMGM Sportsbook to give all users 3 months of complementary Dimers Pro access when you sign up at the sportsbook.

Dimers Pro gives you access to everything Dimers has to offer right now and in the future, including our full list of today’s best bets and our cutting-edge Parlay Picker.

Learn more about this exclusive, limited time offer here.

PGA Championship Golf Betting Preview

Our best bets are here to help with outright winner plays, as well as recommended Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 picks.

Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season long, where we'll be feeding you our trusted PGA best betson a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are sourced from our powerful predictive analytics model that pulled off some big wins in 2023 and has already returned an 80-1 winner with Wyndham Clark in 2024 and correctly predicted Scottie Scheffler's comeback at the RBC Heritage while he was +1000 to win.

Who Will Win the 2024 PGA Championship?

Here are the five most likely winners of this week's PGA Championship, the result of simulating the tournament 10,000 times via our A.I. models. Standouts include Scottie Scheffler with shortest odds of +450 and three-time & defending champ Brooks Koepka in the Top 5. 

GOLFER
WIN
TOP 5
TOP 10
Scottie Scheffler21.6%
49.3%
64.4%
Xander Schauffele7.3%
26.9%
41.7%
Rory McIlroy
6.5%
23.9%
38.8%
Brooks Koepka4.1%
18.2%
30.8%
Jon Rahm3.1%
13.3%
23.1%

For access to every probabilities and projection beyond the Top 5 in each category, hit the Dimers Pro button below:


Dimers' Top-Ranked Golfers at the PGA Championship

GOLFER
Dimers Rank
OWGR
Scottie Scheffler#1
#1
Xander Schauffele#2
#3
Rory McIlroy#3
#2
Cameron Smith#4
#61
Ludvig Aberg#5
#6

MORE: Dimer Pro's In-House Golf Rankings

2024 PGA Championship Best Bets

Scottie Scheffler to Win (+450 on BetMGM)

Yes, even at +450, Scottie Scheffler is an +EV play to win the PGA Championship. In elite form that will be tough for any golfer to match, Scheffler looks to capture his second major of the year after securing his green jacket at The Masters. It doesn't matter if the field is loaded or reduced, LIV-inclusive or PGA only, Scheffler is on an unreal streak, with four wins in his last five events - a T2 in the one he didn't win.

He has just two finished outside single digits with a T17 in January his worst. Our model gives Scheffler a 21.6% chance to win which translates to fair odds of approximately +360 for an edge of 3.4%. 

 

Russell Henley to Win (+12000 on FanDuel)

This is for sure a longshot play, make no mistake, but there's value all the same, and it's significant. +12000 odds imply a win probability of 0.8% while our model gives Henley a 2.0% probability to win the PGA Championship. 1.2% sounds small, but in context with the odds, it's huge. Any idea what 2.0% is in fair odds? It's +4900. Even at the worst odds we found for Henley (+8000 on BetMGM) you see substantial value. For a $10 bet on Henley to win, you're looking at the difference between a $1,200 profit vs. $490 at fair odds.

Henley was a +6000 winner pick for us last week and got out to a hot start but two tough middle rounds caused him to settle for a T10. He's shown upside with three T4 finishes this year, so consider his value at Top 20, Top 10 and Top 5 as well.

 

Denny McCarthy to Win (+15000 on FanDuel)

Another big longshot worth a look throughout the The Top 20/10/5 markets is on Denny McCarthy. He draws a 1.4% probability to win the PGA Championship, translating to fair odds of +7000, meaning you're getting more than twice the profit at the best odds on offer at FanDuel. McCarthy just finished T6 at Wells Fargo, has a 2nd place playoff finish just four events ago at the Valero Texas Open, and is one of the best in the short game right now with his SG: Putting ranking 3rd overall.

 

These aren't the only value plays on the board, but our selected ones based on our model's recommendations. With Dimers Pro, you can check out our full predictions for the PGA Championship to find your favorite plays, with plenty more edges to be found!

Build Round Robins, Top 20 parlays and get round-by-round updates each day with Dimers Pro.


Dimers' Expert Golf Picks and Predictions

As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers also has the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.

Can I bet on golf with Dimers?

No. There’s no golf bet slip on our site because we don’t take any golf bets ourselves. We’re the friend who gives you the best golf picks and predictions then tells you where and how to get the best golf sign up offers at the sportsbooks, so you can throw your golf bets down. That’s it!

When you click on one of our buttons or links in our golf content, you’re whisked away to DraftKings, BetMGM, FanDuel, or one of the many other sportsbooks we work with.

Once you get there, you can join up to score a welcome bonus (up to $200!), and then get those golf bets down for yourself, but you’re betting on the golf with them, not us. Since you are never betting anything directly with us, we don’t have access to your personal information or sensitive financial info like credit card numbers.

It also means that despite our best efforts to confirm that a sports betting site still has that awesome golf sign up offer available, the best ones often disappear just as quickly as they appeared. We always take these offers down once we know they’re no longer available. We take our responsibility to provide up to date golf information very seriously.

Finally, Responsible Gambling is extremely important to us, so please remember that golf betting should be seen as a form of entertainment - adding to your enjoyment while watching from the course of the couch - not a side hustle or second income stream.

If Dimers doesn't take golf bets, then how do you make money?

Whenever you join a sportsbook mentioned in our golf picks and predictions across the website, or use one of our promo codes, we get a small commission for referring you. Don’t worry, though, this doesn’t affect you in any way at all. That’s a fee the sportsbook pays us as a thank-you for sending another golf bettor their way.

We’re always happy to help our readers troubleshoot any problems. Start with our About Us or Contact Us and if that doesn’t work for you, then you can always send us an email at contact@dimers.com. We’ll do our best to help you figure it out.

Dimers and golf betting

  • Dimers, and online sports betting, are not scams – golf betting has been legal since May 2018.
  • We give you the best golf picks and predictions, and tell you where to find the best sign up offers, but you don’t actually bet on golf with us.
  • We do not collect sportsbook sign up or credit card information.
  • We get a commission if you join a sportsbook through our golf content, buttons or links.
  • We’re always happy to help you troubleshoot any issues. Just ask!

Dimers and Responsible Gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.

Dave Garofolo
Content Producer

Dave Garofolo, a seasoned fantasy sports and betting enthusiast with a special affection for MLB and NFL, uses his deep knowledge to craft game previews for the NBA, MLB, and NFL. He also brings his expertise to the golf world with tournament previews and parlays for the PGA TOUR and major golf tournaments. Additionally, Dave offers valuable props for NBA, MLB, NHL, and NCAAM basketball, along with best bets for MLB, NHL, and NCAAM. 

When not delving into the world of sports, Dave is an avid advocate for New Haven pizza, enjoys reading comic books, gardening, and spending time with his cats. His broad interests and detailed sports insights ensure that his contributions are both engaging and informative.

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