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PGA Expert Picks: The Genesis Invitational Predictions & Best Bets

PGA Expert Picks: The Genesis Invitational Predictions & Best Bets

The PGA Tour heads to the Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades, California on Thursday, February 16 for the Genesis Invitational. The Riviera Golf Course is one of the most iconic and historic courses on the PGA Tour, with a challenging layout that has been the site of some of the most memorable moments in golf history. We give you our best bets to win the tournament. Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season, where we'll be feeding you our PGA best bets on a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are made with our predictive analytics model and world-class artificial intelligence, and our data has already found some nice edges to start the year. 

Who will win the 2023 The Genesis Invitational?

PGA Tour Win Probabilities

Look for the 🔥 below, as that indicates a spot where the predictive analytics model has found value against the sportsbooks. To make things easy for you, we even list the best PGA Golf bets for the 2023 The Genesis Invitational, down below.

  WIN TOP 5 TOP 10
Jon Rahm 10.0% 33.2% 48.4%
Rory McIlroy 🔥 10.1% 32.4% 47.1%
Scottie Scheffler 8.4% 29.0% 43.8%
Xander Schauffele 6.3% 23.3% 37.6%
 Tony Finau 6.2% 23.6% 38.1%

RELATED: Dimers' Golf Rankings - Who is No. 1?

The Genesis Invitational Betting Preview

The 2023 tournament at Riviera boasts a hefty purse of $20,000,000, making it one of the most lucrative events on the PGA Tour calendar. With such a high-stakes tournament, the world's best golfers are sure to put in their best performances in hopes of taking home the title and the massive prize money that comes with it.

Dimers' Golf H2H Matchup Tool compares our model's head-to-head probabilities for golfers competing in the current PGA Tour tournament. Choose your players and switch between Fair Odds or Percentages.

According to the latest sportsbook odds, Jon Rahm is the clear favorite at +750 and rated as a 10.0% chance of winning by the Dimers predictive analytics model. Rahm is obviously one of the best golfers in the world and has been in incredible form in recent times, winning several prestigious titles and consistently placing highly in major tournaments, culminating in his 2021 US Open victory.

However, we're looking towards someone else to win this week, and that player is Rory McIlroy. According to our predictive analytics model, McIlroy is the best chance of winning the tournament at Riviera, with a 10.1% probability. At odds of +900 with DraftKings Sportsbook, McIlroy presents an excellent value bet, considering his consistent play and solid track record on the Riviera Golf Course. McIlroy has won at Riviera before, and he will be looking to repeat his past success on this challenging course.


Other players to keep an eye on include Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, and Tony Finau, who are the only other guys with probabilities above 5% following over 10,000 simulations of the tournament. Scheffler has been a rising star in the golfing world in recent years, with his accurate ball-striking and putting skills making him a threat almost every week. Schauffele is a consistent performer on the PGA Tour, his brilliant short game and strategic play make him a perennial contender in major tournaments. Finau, too, is always rock solid and makes him a worthy challenger in this tournament.

The Riviera Golf Course is a demanding and challenging one that requires a high level of skill, precision, and patience. The par-71 course is known for its narrow fairways, small greens, and strategically placed bunkers and hazards that make it a true test of a golfer's ability. The course has been the site of several historic moments in golf, including the famous shot made by Ben Hogan in the 1940s, which is still celebrated to this day.

The tournament attracts thousands of spectators from around the world and, while it won't be anything like last week's Waste Management in Phoenix, the atmosphere on course is sure to be electric.

Nick Slade
Chief Content Officer

Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience as a sports and betting expert, serves as the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, where he steers the editorial and digital content strategy for leading platforms like Dimers.com, Stats Insider and Gambling Today. Specializing in soccer, Nick brings a global perspective to his coverage of the sport, including detailed analyses of MLS games. He also contributes to NHL content through game previews, best bets, and props, and lends his expertise to crafting NBA first basket betting content. 

With a robust background as a journalist and broadcaster, Nick has been a trusted voice on major networks and channels such as Fox Sports, WCBV-TV Boston, ESPN, ABC, and others. His profound understanding of sports and betting dynamics has made him a sought-after authority in the wagering and gambling industries.

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