Thunder vs. Nuggets prediction: Oklahoma City favored to win Sunday's NBA matchup [2/1/2026]

The Denver Nuggets will take on the Oklahoma City Thunder in NBA action at Ball Arena on Sunday, starting at 9:30 PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results and today’s injury reports, Dimers' proven NBA model projects the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Thunder vs. Nuggets game.

This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Nuggets lineup will feature players like Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic and Peyton Watson, while the Thunder will be led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Aaron Wiggins.

This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.

Thunder vs. Nuggets prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NBA matchup between the Thunder and Nuggets 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Thunder a 71% chance of beating the Nuggets. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 115-109.

According to our model, the Nuggets (+4.5) have a 57% chance of covering the spread, while the 228.5-point over/under has a 53% chance of staying under.

Thunder vs. Nuggets odds

We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Thunder	Nuggets
Spread	-4.5 (-110)	+4.5 (-110)
Moneyline	-185	+198
Total	o228.5 (-110)	u228.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Thunder vs. Nuggets picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Nuggets +4.5	-110
Moneyline	Thunder	-185
Total	Under 228.5	-110

According to our best NBA bets for Sunday, the top play to make on this game is Thunder to win.

Thunder vs. Nuggets player props

NBA prop bets are a common way to wager on the Oklahoma City vs. Denver game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Ball Arena.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is expected to lead the Thunder with 31 points, 4 rebounds and 7 assists, while Jamal Murray is projected to have 23 points, 4 rebounds and 6 assists for the Nuggets.

Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.

Thunder prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Thunder are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
S. Gilgeous-Alexander	31	4	7	2	52
Chet Holmgren	19	9	2	1	40
Aaron Wiggins	11	4	2	2	24
Isaiah Joe	11	3	2	3	21
Luguentz Dort	10	4	2	2	22

Nuggets prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Nuggets:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Jamal Murray	23	4	6	3	44
Nikola Jokic	21	10	7	2	51
Peyton Watson	16	6	2	2	33
Tim Hardaway	13	3	1	3	22
J. Valanciunas	10	6	2	0	23

Thunder vs. Nuggets game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's matchup between the Nuggets and Thunder at Ball Arena is scheduled to begin at 9:30 PM ET.

• Who: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets
• Date: Sunday, February 1, 2026
• Time: 9:30 PM ET/6:30PM PT
• Venue: Ball Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Thunder, with a 71% win probability, will likely beat the Nuggets on Sunday, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected for a game-high 52 fantasy points.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Thunder vs. Nuggets insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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