NFL betting model insights report: Analyzing the Week 11 data

The NFL season rolls on as we return with another edition of the Dimers Model Insight Report for Week 11.

While our Best Bet of the Week didn’t get home in last week’s report, the attack spot we focused on — Moneyline plays with an edge greater than 2% — once again proved to be a profitable target in Week 10.

Several winners emerged from this range on the Best Bets page, including:

Texans ML (-108) vs. Jaguars ✅

Dolphins ML (+360) vs. Bills ✅

Eagles ML (+102) vs. Packers ✅

The only misses came on the Browns ML (our featured play) and the Commanders ML, further emphasizing the value of using these reports to spot and act on the model’s strongest categories throughout the week.

Each week, this report surfaces the most meaningful signals from our internal results dashboard — showing where the Dimers NFL Model has historically delivered a positive ROI — and outlining how you can apply those same profitable patterns when you visit the NFL Best Bets page this week.

Let’s get into the latest data.

NFL 2025 season analysis

INSIGHT: NHL model insights are reporting positive ROI

Quick summary:

The model’s sweet spot this season continues to sit within Moneyline plays carrying a 2–10% edge, which have produced the most consistent profitability to date. 

Another standout has been Totals bets with edges greater than 5%, which have returned positive ROI across more than 60 plays. This suggests that when the model identifies stronger discrepancies between its projections and the sportsbook line on the Over/Under, those signals have been especially reliable.

Finally, closing line Moneyline plays continue to show strength. Bettors waiting until closer to kickoff — when lines have settled and more data (injuries, weather, market movement) has been factored in — are seeing the positive results from the model’s projections.

Things to watch in NFL Week 11:

Heading into Week 11, keep a close eye on Moneyline and Totals edges on the Dimers NFL Best Bets page as odds adjust throughout the week.

Moneyline: Look for plays sitting in the 2–10% range — this has been the engine of consistent returns for model-backed bettors.

Totals: Monitor how weather reports and injury updates influence line movement late in the week. These shifts often create new Over/Under opportunities that creep above the 5% edge mark.

Timing: With closing line performance trending positive, patience pays off — waiting until Saturday night or Sunday morning to lock in your bets could yield stronger returns.

RELATED: NBA betting model insights report

Best bet to attack - NFL Week 11

Chargers Moneyline (-150) vs. Jaguars

This week’s best bet takes us to Jacksonville for Jaguars vs. Chargers, where our model projects the Chargers to earn a road win.

At the time of publishing, Los Angeles holds a 64% win probability on the Moneyline, creating a 4% edge over the best available sportsbook odds of -150 at BetMGM.

This play falls squarely within one of our most profitable NFL betting zones for 2025 — Moneyline bets with an edge of 2% or greater ✅

Responsible gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support ✅