NBA betting model insights report: Analyzing this week's performance

The Dimers NBA model is firing on all cylinders, continuing its red-hot start to the season and standing out as our most profitable model across the entire site, based on ROI. 

And this week is already off to a winning start, with the Nuggets getting the job done against the Clippers on Wednesday night, taking our streak to 7-1, before the Miami Heat failed to cover the 4.5 and 5.5 identified by the model late in the week.

We went 6-1 last week, with the Kings, Lakers, Suns, Bucks, Pistons, and the Bucks again, all cashing Moneyline bets after landing comfortably within the 2% or higher edge range we highlighted - a spot that held strong throughout the entire week.

NBA best bets

This week's results

Nuggets ML ✅

Last week's results

Lakers ML ✅

Kings ML ✅

Suns ML ✅

Bucks ML ✅

Lakers ML ❌

Pistons ML ✅

Bucks ML ✅

Each week, this report surfaces the most meaningful signals from our internal results dashboard — showing where the Dimers NBA Model has historically delivered a positive ROI — and outlining how you can apply those same profitable patterns when you visit the NBA Best Bets page this week.

Let’s keep it going.

NBA 2025-26 season analysis

Our NBA model continues to pick up steam, showing a positive return in every traditional betting market (ML/Spread/Totals)

INSIGHTS: NFL model finds three sweet spots in Week 11

Quick summary:

The sweet spot for NBA betting continues to fall within the 2–7% edge range for Moneylines and the 2-10% edge range Spread plays. These mid-tier edge values have proven to be the most reliable ROI performers so far this season.

Things to watch in NBA this week:

One of the most common questions we get is; "when’s the best time to place these bets?"

While our data shows that while the Dimers model has delivered positive ROI across both opening line and closing line plays, it’s the closing line bets that have produced the strongest returns so far this NBA season. 

In other words — if you’re someone who likes to wait until closer to tip-off before locking in your plays with the online sports betting sites, then you’re currently sitting in the sweet spot for profitability. Something to keep in mind as you browse our NBA Best Bets page throughout the week if you're hunting the best closing line value.

RELATED: NHL model insights are reporting positive ROI

NBA best bet from Wednesday night

CASHED: Nuggets Moneyline -145 (vs. Clippers) ✅

Tonight’s play takes us to Los Angeles, where our model likes the Denver Nuggets to keep their strong form rolling with a win over the Clippers.

At the time of publishing, the Nuggets moneyline holds a 63.9% win probability and a 4.7% edge against the best available odds of -145 at Caesars Sportsbook — landing squarely within our model’s proven profitability range this season.

NBA best bet from Friday

MISSED: Heat +5.5 (-105) vs. Knicks

We've updated this bet on the Miami Heat from +4.5 to +5.5 against the New York Knicks on Friday, November 14th, originally flagged as a high-value opportunity on Thursday at plus-money odds! The model now assigns the Heat a 53.3% probability of covering the +5.5 point spread. Crucially, the best available odds are now -105, meaning this is no longer an even money bet.

This is why it pays to monitor Dimers' best bets so you can strike when an opportunity presents.

Still, the combination of a strong probability and strong enough odds generates a nice 2.1% edge. This percentage is a significant positive expected value on an NBA spread, firmly planting the wager within our most profitable "sweet spot" range for high-confidence attacks. With Knicks star Jalen Brunson ruled out with an ankle injury, this bet on the Heat +5.5 looks better than ever - albeit with slightly less +EV.

NBA best bet for Sunday

Three, yes THREE, bets fit the criteria of "bets to attack" today.

The analysis highlights three games where our predicted probability exceeds the likelihood implied by the best available odds. This results in positive edges, with win probabilities ranging from 57.3% to 65.9%.

When our model finds favorites with predicted win rates between three and four percentage points higher than the market, that's the definition of +EV, creating mathematical edges you need to exploit.

First up, we’ve got the Chicago Bulls Moneyline vs. Utah Jazz. The analysis gives the Bulls a strong chance of winning, and the best odds available right now are -167. Our prediction model is saying the Bulls are far more likely to win than the public consensus reflected in those odds, so we have a 3.4% edge on the market.

Similarly, we're betting the Portland Trail Blazers Moneyline (vs. Dallas Mavericks). With their best odds at -159, the implied probability gives us a 3.2% edge, suggesting they are another under-priced favorite that should be "attacked" today.

The most attractive value spot, however, is the Atlanta Hawks Moneyline (vs. Phoenix Suns). Atlanta is predicted to win 57.3% of the time, which is the lowest win probability of the three, but the odds are what makes it a must-bet. The best odds of -115 imply the Hawks have only a 53.5% chance to win, meaning our NBA model gives us a strong 3.8% edge.

Conclusion

Building on a successful start, the focus remains on leveraging the most profitable patterns identified by the Dimers NBA Model. The 2025 season analysis confirms the model's status as one of the sharpest in the industry, continuing to show positive ROI in key areas.

Users should prioritize Moneyline and Spread bets falling within the 2- 10% edge window, a sweet spot that has proven successful whether betting early or taking advantage of closing numbers. Additionally, the model shows consistent, early strength on closing line Totals bets when they also fall into that key 2% and above edge range ✅

These insights are designed to guide your weekly approach to the NBA Best Bets page, helping you apply the same profitable strategies that have been delivering strong returns. By focusing on these opportunities, you give yourself the best chance to replicate the model's success and maximize your returns on the hardwood this week.

Responsible gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.