NHL betting model insights report: Analyzing this week's performance

The NHL Model Insights Report keeps rolling — and delivering — for Dimers Pro users.

For the second straight week, our Best Bet of the Week cashed, with the Predators puck line holding strong against the Wild — a trend that continued throughout the week for bettors following our profit signals across the Dimers site.

Each week, this report surfaces the most meaningful signals from our internal results dashboard — showing where the Dimers NHL Model has historically delivered a positive ROI — and outlining how you can apply those same profitable patterns when you visit the NHL Best Bets page this week.

Let’s get into the latest report.

RELATED: How we used NHL data to cash a +1590 goalscorer parlay

Now, let’s get into the latest data.

NHL 2025 season analysis

As we move deeper into the NHL season, the growing data sample continues to reveal consistent edges in key areas — and this week’s report uncovers some particularly interesting trends in how our model performs when comparing home versus road teams.

INSIGHT: NBA model goes 6-1 to dominate Moneyline bets

Quick summary:

Our model’s Puck Line bets in the 2–5% edge range continue to be a steady performer, maintaining a positive ROI across more than 40 bets this season. That edge has been especially strong when backing road teams on the puck line, which have also returned positive profits at a similar sample size.

On the moneyline, there’s been a noticeable split:

Home team moneyline bets with a model edge above 2% have produced solid, profitable returns.

Conversely, road team moneyline bets in that same edge range have underperformed, showing a negative ROI despite a healthy data set of 50+ bets.

These contrasting results suggest that the model’s read on home-ice advantage is sharp — a useful angle for bettors looking to find value this week.

RELATED: NFL model finds three sweet spots in Week 11

Things to watch in NHL this week:

Keep an eye on home team moneyline edges above 2% on the Dimers NHL Best Bets page as lines update each day. With the model continuing to show strong returns in that area, it’s a trend worth leaning into until the numbers say otherwise.

At the same time, be cautious when targeting road team moneylines, especially in tighter edge ranges — the current data suggests those plays are worth a second look before committing.

Puck Line bets can be bet with confidence on the closing or opening line with both splits returning profit, for both home and road teams.

NHL bet we attacked on Tuesday night

CASHED: San Jose Sharks +1.5 (-130) vs. Wild ✅

We’re sticking with what’s been working — the puck line — for our top play on Tuesday, with the San Jose Sharks +1.5 against the Minnesota Wild emerging as the model’s favorite spot to attack.

The Sharks have quietly found form, riding a three-game winning streak as they head into Minnesota, and our model continues to reward bettors who’ve leaned on these tight-edge puck line plays.

With a 2.1% edge identified on the current odds of -130 at BetMGM, this pick lands perfectly in our model’s sweet spot for profitability, making the Sharks +1.5 a strong value play for Tuesday night ✅

NHL best bet for Thursday

MISSED: Buffalo Sabres Puck Line (+1.5) vs. Avalanche

The bet on the Sabres +1.5 against the Avalanche on November 13th is flagged as a high-value opportunity - a road team with an edge over 2%. The model gives the Sabres a 51.4% probability of covering the +1.5 goal line. The best available odds are listed at a favorable +115.

The key data point is the truly exceptional 4.9% edge identified in the market. This large positive expected value is a critical outlier and firmly places this wager at the very top of our profitable "sweet spot" range for high-confidence attacks. The combination of plus-money odds and a probability over 50% makes the Sabres +1.5 a solid bet.

NHL best bet for Friday

CASHED: Vancouver Canucks Puck Line (+1.5) vs. Hurricanes ✅

The NHL bet on the Canucks +1.5 against the Hurricanes on November 14th is flagged as a high-confidence, high-value opportunity. The model assigns the Canucks a 56.1% probability of covering the +1.5 goal line. The best available odds are -110.

The key value driver is the highly significant 3.7% edge identified in the market. This large positive expected value is a critical outlier and firmly places this wager at the very top of our profitable "sweet spot" range for high-confidence attacks. The value is amplified by the fact the favored Hurricanes are starting a back-to-back sequence tonight, making the Canucks +1.5 an immediate priority bet ✅

NHL best bet for Saturday

At the time of publishing (10:00am ET) on Saturday morning, there were no suitable bets that met the criteria today.

Keep an eye on the NHL best bets section, though, as things can change as they day rolls on ✅

NHL best bet for Sunday

At the time of publishing on Sunday, there were no suitable bets that met the criteria today.

Keep an eye on the NHL best bets section, though, as things can change as they day rolls on ✅

Conclusion

Building on a successful start, the focus remains on leveraging the most profitable patterns identified by the Dimers NHL Model. The 2025 season analysis confirms the model's status as one of the sharpest in the industry, continuing to show positive ROI in key areas.

Users should prioritize puck line bets falling within the 2–5% edge window, a sweet spot that has proven successful whether betting early or taking advantage of closing numbers. Additionally, the model shows consistent, early strength on Home Team Moneyline bets when they also fall into that key 2–5% edge range ✅

These insights are designed to guide your weekly approach to the NHL Best Bets page, helping you apply the same profitable strategies that have been delivering strong returns. By focusing on these opportunities, you give yourself the best chance to replicate the model's success and maximize your returns on the ice this week.

Responsible gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.