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Mets vs. Diamondbacks prediction: Tight battle projected in updated analysis for Sunday's MLB matchup [5/10/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks predictions for MLB Sunday.
The Arizona Diamondbacks will square off with the New York Mets, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at Chase Field on Sunday, beginning at 4:10 PM ET.
The Diamondbacks will have Eduardo Rodriguez (3-0, 2.50 ERA) as their starting pitcher, while the Mets have opted for Huascar Brazobán (2-0, 1.53 ERA).
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced MLB model gives an equal chance for both both teams to win the Mets-Diamondbacks matchup.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's Mets vs. Diamondbacks matchup, including best bets and picks.
Mets vs. Diamondbacks prediction: Who will win?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's MLB matchup between the Mets and Diamondbacks, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently can't split the two teams, giving both the Mets and Diamondbacks a 50% chance of winning the game.
According to our model, the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 57% chance of going over.
Mets vs. Diamondbacks odds [5/10/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mets | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -104 | -110 |
| Total | o8.5 (-115) | u8.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mets vs. Diamondbacks picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Mets | -104 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | -115 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mets vs. Diamondbacks game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's MLB action between the Diamondbacks and Mets at Chase Field is scheduled to start at 4:10 PM ET.
- Who: New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
- Date: Sunday, May 10, 2026
- Time: 4:10 PM ET/1:10PM PT
- Venue: Chase Field
Conclusion
We predict a close game between the Mets and Diamondbacks on Sunday, with each team having a 50% chance of winning.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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